UPDATED: 1500hrs EDT 10/29
The NHC has upped the odds of this system becoming a T.S. to nearly 100% as of the 2pm advisory.
A recon flight is inside the system right now, and I would not be surprised to see proto-Tomas upgraded and possibly named in the next few hours.
Meanwhile, the Centre national de météorologie (CNM) in Haiti has issued an advisory (in French) here.
Translated, it reads in part :
Special Bulletin # 1 Friday, October 29, 2010
A rigorous tropical wave associated with a low pressure center was located about 1,000 km east southeast of the West Indies this morning.
This system could become a hurricane within the next 48 hours.
The trajectory models do pass near the southern coast of Haiti on Sunday night and Monday. The passage of this disturbance near the southern coast of Haiti could generate gusty winds, scattered showers and thunderstorms especially for regions south of Haiti from Sunday evening.
# 5020
It has been an unusual hurricane season, to say the least.
While the United States has been spared the brunt of an unusually active Atlantic tropical season, we are currently up to the year’s 18th named storm (SHARY) and on the cusp of seeing number 19 form.
Shary poses a minor threat to Bermuda, but it is the large and well defined (for Late October) disturbance in approaching the Leeward Islands that has captured the most attention.
Frankly, this time of year, we don’t expect to see anything form this far east, or south in the tropics.
September? Sure. Late October . . . almost November?
Not in my memory.
Conditions are generally favorable for development (although it has to get past the coastline of South America), and the models right now take it in the general direction of Haiti early next week.
A tropical storm or hurricane is absolutely the last thing that the relief efforts, medical workers fighting a cholera outbreak, and the beleaguered people of Haiti need to deal with right now.
Since model forecasts, particularly before a system becomes well developed, tend to shift considerably over time, everyone in the Caribbean – not just Haiti - and the Southeastern United States needs to keep one eye on this late season proto-storm.
Of course, you don’t have much to worry about . . . as long as you are prepared.
You are already prepared . . . aren’t you?
This weekend would be an excellent time to review your family disaster plan, and make any needed improvements to your emergency kit.
Track this budding storm (and any other tropical threats) on the NHC website at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
Also, if you are on Twitter, follow @FEMA and @CraigAtFEMA for timely updates and preparedness advice.
