# 5256
At roughly the mid-way point of the 2010-2011 European flu season, the ECDC has produced an interim risk assessment on the remainder of this year’s flu season.
I’ve provided the link, abstract, and a few excerpts from the executive summary - but this 16 page pdf file is chock full of epidemiological and virological details, and is well worth reviewing in its entirety.
ECDC Forward Look Risk Assessment: Seasonal influenza 2010–2011 in Europe
- 25 Jan 2011
ABSTRACT
The 2010/11 seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe are dominated so far by the A(H1N1)2009 viruses which emerged in the 2009 pandemic, although these are now considered seasonal viruses. This is an interim risk assessment and will be up-dated at intervals as more data and analyses emerge.
Excerpts:
Executive summary
The 2010/11 seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe are dominated so far by the A(H1N1)2009 viruses which emerged in the 2009 pandemic, although these are now considered seasonal viruses. There are also some B viruses circulating.Both are causing some severe disease and premature deaths but the preliminary data indicate that 90% of the fatalities
are due to A(H1N1)2009.
This is the first European influenza season after the 2009 pandemic. Many of the features and required countermeasures are the same as for the previous seasonal influenzas (which ran until the 2008/09 season). However, there are important differences which Europe needs to take into consideration, notably the type of people who are most affected
and experiencing severe disease.
<SNIP>
A broad pattern of west to east progression of influenza epidemics is underway, such as has been seen in previous years. Hence the experience of the Western countries can inform those further to the east of the European Union. All these considerations constitute the justification for this Interim ECDC Risk Assessment, which will be updated at
intervals.
Those mostly reported as experiencing severe disease or dying prematurely are those adults below the age of 65 years and children in the clinical risk groups. These constitute over 80% of cases reported.
<SNIP>
The circulating viruses have not as yet changed or mutated, and it is expected that the seasonal vaccines will be effective in preventing disease. ECDC-coordinated studies in the pandemic found up to 80% effectiveness for vaccines containing A(H1N1)2009. Other observational studies have confirmed this.
<SNIP>
The scientific evidence to date provides justification for the following countermeasures already adopted by some countries in addition to the usual influenza personal protective measures (early self isolation, respiratory hygiene and
hand-washing):
- Continued vaccination of all those recommended for vaccination following national guidelines but especially clinical risk groups, including pregnant women, especially as it seems that the vaccine provides some protection even just a week after injection. However, there may be vaccine availability, logistical and administrative issues that will make this difficult in some settings.
- Use of antiviral treatment in those presenting with severe influenza-like illness, pending virological confirmation, and in those with risk factors with milder disease.
- Alerting higher level healthcare services of potential increased numbers of influenza patients this winter, potentially already in the next few weeks.
- Advising clinicians to be vigilant to the possibility of severe illness due to bacterial co-infection with influenza, including invasive group A streptococcal, pneumococcal and meningococcal infection, and to be aware of the possibility of such bacterial co-infection in people with flu-like illness.
- Use or creation of clinical networks for surveillance, evaluation and sharing of clinical experience.
This is an interim risk assessment and will be up-dated at intervals as more data and analyses emerge.
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