# 5679
While it is still early in the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, we’ve an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) that has a medium possibility (30%) of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
This from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fl.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
Not a huge threat, but one worth keeping an eye out this weekend if you live along the Gulf Coast.
As far as where it will go?
Models aren’t particularly good at predicting the movement of these weather systems until they reach tropical storm strength, but the `spaghetti model’ shows this disturbance meandering generally either north or north-west.
After months of drought, west-central Florida has already seen welcome heavy rains from this system, proving that despite their reputation, these tropical weather makers aren’t all bad.
Regardless of whether this system develops, we have five months left to the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and predictions (see NOAA Issues 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook) are calling for:
- 12 to 18 named storms
- 6 to 10 could become hurricanes
- 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)
Which means that if you haven’t already done so, this weekend is the perfect time to review your family and/or business disaster plan.
To help you along, NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.
To become better prepared as an individual, family, business owner, or community to deal with hurricanes, or any other type of disaster: visit the following preparedness sites.
FEMA http://www.fema.gov/index.shtm
READY.GOV http://www.ready.gov/
AMERICAN RED CROSS http://www.redcross.org/
Since May was National Hurricane Preparedness week, this blog devoted considerable time to the subject. A few of my blogs on hurricane preparedness included:
National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2011
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Inland Flooding
How Not To Be Gone With The Wind
Getting SLOSHed For Hurricane Season
Along with some general preparedness blogs:
