# 5729
The large area of disturbed weather we’ve been watching for several days as it has moved across the Atlantic has coalesced into the 5th Tropical Storm of the 2011 Atlantic tropical season, and has been named Emily.
It is currently forecast to cross the island of Hispaniola on Wednesday . . . and if it survives interaction with its mountainous terrain . . . potentially pose a hurricane threat to the Southeastern United States by the weekend.
Although the 5-day track shows the storm approaching S.E. Florida on Saturday as a Hurricane, there remains a good deal of uncertainty in this forecast . . . particularly regarding Emily’s intensity after crossing the island of Hispaniola.
Some of this evening’s computer models have the storm going up the east coast of Florida, while others have the storm going up the center of the state, or even further west into the Gulf of Mexico.
It may take a couple of days before these models come together.
For now, what seems likely is that Hispaniola will be dealing with a strong tropical storm in about 48 hours. Flooding, and accompanying mudslides from the heavily deforested mountains, are always major concerns when tropical systems cross that island.
There also remain thousands of people who still live in scores of flimsy tent-and-tarp settlements that sprang up after the 7.0 Earthquake in early 2010.
For Haiti, and to a lesser extent the Dominican Republic, heavy rains may further exacerbate their recent Cholera outbreaks, and could also help increase the number of mosquitoes that carry Dengue fever.
Interests in the Caribbean, and in the the Southeastern United States, need to keep track of this storm’s progress. The National Hurricane Center is your best source of information.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @CraigatFEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadydotGov.
NOAA’s NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami also has a Facebook page, where you can keep up with the latest tropical developments.
Of course, knowing about an approaching storm isn’t enough.
You need to be prepared as well.
To help you along, NOAA, FEMA, and the American Red Cross have released an updated preparedness guide for the 2011 tropical season.
