Avian Flu Diary: Yes, We Have No Pandemic . . .

# 6494

We have no pandemic today.

And despite recent media reports of H3N8`seal flu’ in Maine, scattered outbreaks H3N2v flu in the Midwest, and continued sporadic human infections with the H5N1 virus, there is no clear viral frontrunner in the bid to spark the next pandemic.

But of course, that happy status could change tomorrow . . . or next week, or next year. If fact, if you are willing to leave the arrival date open-ended, another pandemic is pretty much inevitable.

Scientists and public health officials know this, which is why they watch these new and emerging viruses closely for any signs they may be adapting well enough to human physiology to spark a global outbreak.

While they are tracking a number of viruses with pandemic potential, none of them have evolved sufficiently to pose a global threat. A short list of viral flu contenders include:

H5N1 aka `Bird Flu’
H9N2 another avian virus circulating in Asia
H7 avian viruses
H3N8 aka `seal flu’
H3N2v A variant Swine Virus

Of these, only the H5N1 virus sits in an elevated (level III) pre-pandemic alert status.

But, as we saw in 2009, a virus can come out of left field, completely unexpected and with little notice. And while fiction, the plot line from the movie Contagion, with a Nipah-like pathogen, is not beyond the realm of possibility, either.

In 2008, roughly six months before the H1N1 pandemic virus of 2009 emerged, Lloyds released a report to the insurance industry on the potential impact of a global pandemic, and the need to be prepared.

While four years have passed, the advice from that report is no less valid. From their executive summary, five important points are made:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A PANDEMIC IS INEVITABLE
1918 MAY NOT BE THE WORST CASE
ECONOMIC IMPACTS MAY BE SIGNIFICANT
MANY INSURANCE LOSSES ARE POSSIBLE
SECONDARY IMPACTS MAY OCCUR

Of note, the Lloyds report takes pains to point out that while we worry about an influenza pandemic the most, there are other candidates out there that could spark a pandemic (or at least an epidemic).

They list:

Hendra Virus
Nipah Virus
Cholera
Small Pox
HIV/AIDS
Bubonic Plague
Tuberculosis
Lassa fever
Rift Valley fever
Marburg virus
Ebola virus
Bolivian hemorrhagic fever
MRSA
SARS

I would add Virus X, the one we don't know about yet, to this list.

Influenza, however, is (for now) the most easily spread of these diseases, and remains our main focus. Should a mutation occur, one that allows Ebola, or Marburg, Nipah, or Lassa fever to spread more easily, it would change the playing field considerably.

But don’t take my word for it.

Flu.gov, the U.S. governments portal for all things flu, maintains a page that tells us what to expect when the next pandemic comes down the pike.

The Next Flu Pandemic: What to Expect

A flu pandemic could touch us all

A flu (influenza) pandemic is an outbreak caused by a new human flu virus that spreads around the world. Because the pandemic flu virus will be new to people, many people could get very sick or could die. Seasonal flu shots do not protect people from pandemic flu.

It’s not a matter of IF, but WHEN

Flu pandemics have happened throughout history. They occur from time to time, and some are worse than others.

Three flu pandemics happened in the 1900s. Near the end of World War I, the 1918 Flu Pandemic was the most severe flu pandemic of the century. It killed about 675,000 people in the United States and between 20 to 50 million people around the world.

If you check your family’s history, you may find how your family was affected at that time. Almost everyone was touched in some way by the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Other flu pandemics in the 1900s were less severe.

Public health experts say it’s not a matter of IF a flu pandemic will happen, but WHEN. We cannot predict when the next flu pandemic will happen.

Limiting contact helps to save lives

We have learned from past flu pandemics that during a pandemic, limiting contact among people helps to slow the spread of the virus and helps to save lives. Being around other people makes you more likely to get sick or to make others sick. The flu could spread and more people could get sick.

Until a vaccine can be made, limiting contact among people will be our main tool for helping to contain the disease and to prevent others from getting it.

During a flu pandemic, health officials may ask you and your community to take actions to help limit contact among people. Your daily routines could change for several months.

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Flu pandemics are like any other disaster. They can radically disrupt your daily routine, and they require a degree of advance preparation to get through.

Luckily, many of the same preparation steps that are recommended for other disasters – like hurricanes and earthquakes – will prove useful during a pandemic.

September is National Preparedness Month, and one of the threats everyone should consider is how to deal with a local epidemic, or larger pandemic. To get started, visit Ready.gov and learn how to make a plan, build a kit, and be informed.

Flu.gov offers the following specific advice to individuals and families:

Make a list of important contacts for home, school, and work.

Talk with your neighbors, workplace, and school about how to plan for staying home if you or your household members are sick.

Think about services you may need and make plans with your service providers.

Although the flu pandemic may last several months, buy and store at least 2-weeks’ supplies of food, water, medicine, and facemasks. (Food and supplies may be hard to get during a pandemic.) When you have to stay home, these supplies will support your family and pets.

Be aware, plan ahead, and share with others what you have learned. Together, we can help protect ourselves, our families, and our communities.

Coming off an unusually mild flu year, during these dog days of August, it is easy to be lulled into complacency when it comes to influenza, and pandemics. But flu season for the Northern Hemisphere is only a couple of months away, and pandemics know no season.

Flu shots are now becoming available, and this year’s shot contains two new antigens – an updated H3N2 seasonal strain, and for the first time in several years, a B strain from the Yamagata lineage.

Both of these strains are expected to be `players’ this winter, and most of the community has little immunity to them. Which makes getting this year’s shot all the more important.

The CDC urges nearly everybody over the age of 6 months to get the seasonal flu shot:

Who Should Get Vaccinated This Season?

Everyone who is at least 6 months of age should get a flu vaccine this season. It’s especially important for some people to get vaccinated. Those people include the following:

People who are at high risk of developing serious complications like pneumonia if they get sick with the flu. This includes:

People who have certain medical conditions including asthma, diabetes, and chronic lung disease.

Pregnant women.

People 65 years and older

People who live with or care for others who are high risk of developing serious complications. This includes:

household contacts and caregivers of people with certain medical conditions including asthma, diabetes, and chronic lung disease.