Credit NIAID
# 7069
It’s been five days since China announced their detection of a new strain of bird flu (H7N9) in humans, and to date there is a great deal we do not know about this emerging pathogen.
Currently our most concerning gaps in understanding this threat are how this virus has been transmitted to (now 10) humans, and from what animal reservoir is it has jumped.
Despite overly reassuring pronouncements from some public figures, the simple truth is, no one really knows where this is going. This virus could simply fade away over time, become a worrisome (albeit sporadic) viral threat, or at some point it could take off.
These are very early days, where the gathering and analysis of data is going to take some time.
And we must always remember that whatever this virus is biologically capable of doing today could easily change tomorrow, next week, or next year.
The Australian Science Media Centre (AusSMC) has put together a group of expert opinions on the H7N9 virus, and made it available to journalists around the world called RAPID REACTION: Bird flu (H7N9) in China – experts respond.
Initial reactions from a half dozen experts (Professor Adrian Sleigh, Professor Anton Middelberg, Dr Alan Hampson, Dr Jenny McKimm-Breschkin, Professor Dominic Dwyer, and Dr Nikolai Petrovsky) are provided, and are all worth exploring.
Perhaps the most recognizable name to regular readers of this blog is Dr Alan Hampson - Chair of the Australian Influenza Specialist Group.
You find earlier mentions of him in Dr. Alan Hampson Interview On Indonesia’s New Bird Flu Clade, Australia: Radio Interview On Bird Flu Threat, Singapore Medical Journal: Avian Flu Edition.
Dr. Hampson provides one of the longer comments, and nicely sums up, I think, the current level of uncertainty regarding this emerging virus.
Dr Alan Hampson is an influenza consultant and Chair of the Australian Influenza Specialist Group
“At the moment it’s very hard to have any real idea of what is happening but the reports are certainly concerning. There is a virus out there which, like the H5N1 strain, appears to be causing serious illness, but how widespread that illness is at this very early stage, we don’t know. We don’t know whether we’re seeing the tip of the iceberg or whether we’re actually seeing most of the existing cases presenting as severe infection. If it’s the latter then it’s a concern. The other thing to consider is, of course, that there is no obvious source of the virus at the moment. Undoubtedly it’s going to turn out to be domestic poultry, but whether it’s chicken or ducks we don’t know. In the case of H5N1 in Thailand and Vietnam in 2002/03 when people started to become ill, it was only after that that it was recognised that the virus was actually causing significant outbreaks in poultry. So maybe in the fullness of time it will be found this virus is also causing severe disease in poultry. If it isn’t and it is being transmitted among poultry without any obvious signs then that’s going to make it very difficult to get any idea of how you might control it, we have to wait and see and we have to wait to see if this is the tip of the iceberg in humans.”
About the particular H7N9 strain:
“The H7 virus has been known to cause mild infection in humans and to cause severe infections in poultry. But the particular neuraminidase type [the N in H7N9] of this virus is different than we’ve seen reported. There have been 3 other neuraminidase types associated with the infections that have been in poultry and have transmitted to humans. So in this H7N9, the N9 is the different aspect of this, and whether that is contributing something to the virulence, we don’t know.”
Will this affect Australia’s flu season or lead to a pandemic?:
“No, we really hope not. If a virus starts to transmit among humans then there’s no telling how quickly it might travel and where it might travel too. We really don’t know, it’s very early days to know what we’re dealing with at this stage. Does it have pandemic potential? Yes, any influenza that jumps from an animal species to a human has pandemic potential. If it learns to spread in humans, if it actually acquires that ability, then it’s a high likelihood it will become pandemic. Can we do much about it? The world improved its pandemic responsiveness after the H1N1 outbreak, but I think we have a long way to go in learning about this new strain.”
For more expert analysis and commentary, visit:
RAPID REACTION: Bird flu (H7N9) in China – experts respond
