Saturday, July 20, 2013

Extreme Zombie Epidemiology

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# 7499

 

If you’ve ever wondered what a scientist thinks about after watching a zombie flick, today’s your lucky day.

 

Dr. Ian MacKay, fresh from viewing this summer’s blockbuster movie World War Z, provides us with some irreverent thoughts on zombie outbreak epidemiology this morning in his blog Virology Down Under.

 

After you read his blog, return and I’ll have a bit more.

 

World War Z: a study in extreme epidemiology.

I saw this at the movies Thursday night. I really enjoyed the movie - really delivers on its zombie promise and adds the story of a father trying to look after his family.

 

It struck me though that it's also a great story of what would happen if, instead of anthropomorphising viruses into beings that wish to do things...you gave them a pair of legs and let them decide what to do...which it turns out is to transmit, transmit, transmit! So, some irreverent thoughts on how a Z virus might fit in the current context of virus outbreaks..

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Although a the probability of seeing a zombie plague is conceded to be exceedingly low, what little scientific evidence we have does suggests it would be a high impact event (cite The Walking Dead, Night of the Living Dead, et al.)

 

The growing popularity of zombies inspired the CDC to cast the rising of the dead as the ultimate preparedness meme in 2011, and within hours the message had gone viral (see The CDC And The Zombie Apocalypse).

 

 

Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse

Categories: Zombies

May 16th, 2011 11:48 am ET  -  Ali S. Khan

Banner - Zombie Apocalypse

Walking Dead fans, check out our latest post: http://go.usa.gov/Q4JExternal Web Site Icon

There are all kinds of emergencies out there that we can prepare for. Take a zombie apocalypse for example. That’s right, I said z-o-m-b-i-e a-p-o-c-a-l-y-p-s-e. You may laugh now, but when it happens you’ll be happy you read this, and hey, maybe you’ll even learn a thing or two about how to prepare for a real emergency.

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And while their tongues may have been planted firmly in cheek when they wrote it, researchers at the University of Ottawa have done the math when it comes to modeling a zombie outbreak.

WHEN ZOMBIES ATTACK!: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF AN OUTBREAK OF ZOMBIE INFECTION

Philip Munz, Ioan Hudea, Joe Imad, Robert J. Smith

 

For those not willing to endure the entire 18-page paper, the bad news is:

 

In summary, a zombie outbreak is likely to lead to the collapse of civilisation, unless it is dealt with quickly. While aggressive quarantine may contain the epidemic, or a cure may lead to coexistence of humans and zombies, the most effective way to contain the rise of the undead is to hit hard and hit often. As seen in the movies, it is imperative that zombies are dealt with quickly, or else we are all in a great deal of trouble.

 

Deserving of the `understatement of the year award’.

 

Although zombie outbreaks aren’t real (as far as we know), the value of social distancing, sheltering-in-place, and general preparedness they teach have real value in many disaster scenarios.

 

Because, let’s face it. 

 

If you are prepared for a zombie apocalypse, you really are prepared to deal with just about anything.