Saturday, June 04, 2016

Keeping An Eye On The Gulf Of Mexico


Although we are only in week 1 of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season, forecasters are watching an area of suspicion in the Western Caribbean with the potential to turn into a depression or named tropical storm over the next couple of days.

While conditions aren't exactly ideal for rapid development the NHC nevertheless gives it a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.

This from this morning's  TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea remain disorganized.  A low pressure system is expected to form in association with this disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the adjacent waters by Sunday and drift generally northward. 

Despite strong upper-level winds, this low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently moves northeastward across the south-central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

While this system is unlikely to pose a major threat, hurricane season runs through the end of November, so the smart money is on getting prepared now.

Last month in Hurricane Preparedness 2016, we looked at the things you and your family can do to prepare for tropical weather.  If you haven't already done so, now would be a very good time to review your plans and preparations.