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After six consecutive months of record breaking reports out of China, in July H7N9 finally entered its summer lull, and the number of human infections has slowed to a trickle.
While a welcome respite, the expectation is that sometime this autumn the virus will spark its 6th epidemic wave.How next year will compare to season 5 is anyone's guess, but the recent emergence and rapid spread of a new HPAI version of the virus has China's Ministry of Agriculture anxious to roll out a new (H5+H7) poultry vaccine (see China MOA Orders HPAI H7N9 Vaccine Deployed Nationwide This Fall).
Today the World Health Organization has published an update with details on the last three cases (all from July), along with their current risk assessment.
Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – China
Disease outbreak news
7 August 2017
On 11, 14, and 21 July 2017, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China (NHFPC) notified WHO of three individual laboratory-confirmed case of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China.
Details of the case patients
On 11 July 2017, the NHFPC reported one laboratory-confirmed human case of infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China. The case-patient was a 35-year-old male, who developed symptoms on 23 June 2017, and died on 30 June. This was the first reported case from Xinjiang since April 2015. He was a butcher and seller at a live poultry market.
On 14 July 2017, the NHFPC reported one laboratory-confirmed human case of infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China. The case-patient was a 54-year-old male from Yunnan province. He developed symptoms on 23 June 2017 and was admitted to hospital with severe pneumonia on 28 June. He was reported to have had exposure to a live poultry market.
On 21 July 2017, the NHFPC reported one laboratory-confirmed human case of infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China. The case-patient was a 62-year-old female from Jiangsu province. She developed symptoms on 12 July 2017 and was admitted to hospital with severe pneumonia on 13 July. She was reported to have had exposure to a live poultry market.
The Chinese government has assessed that it is still likely that sporadic cases will occur in China taking into consideration the previous epidemic situation and risk assessment.
To date, a total of 1557 laboratory-confirmed human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have been reported in China through IHR notification since early 2013.
(SNIP)
WHO risk assessment
As seen in previous years, the number of weekly reported cases of infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus has decreased over the summer months. However, the number of human infections and the geographical distribution in the fifth epidemic wave (i.e. onset since 1 October 2016) has been greater than earlier waves. This suggests that the virus has spread, and emphasizes that further intensive surveillance and control measures in both the human and animal health sectors remain crucial.
Most human case-patients have been exposed to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus through contact with infected poultry or contaminated environments, including live poultry markets. Since the virus continues to be detected in animals and environments, and live poultry vending continues, further human cases can be expected. Additional sporadic human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) are also expected in provinces in China that have not yet reported human cases.
Similarly, sporadic human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) detected in countries bordering China would not be unexpected. Although small clusters of cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus have been reported, including those involving patients in the same ward, current epidemiological and virological evidence suggests that this virus has not acquired the capacity for sustained transmission among humans. Therefore the likelihood of further community level spread is considered low.(Continue . . . .)
Close analysis of the epidemiological situation and further characterization of the most recent viruses are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.
