UPDATED: 2pm Sunday- NHC Upgrades system to Tropical Storm Michael
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As we discussed yesterday, this is the time of the year when we expect to see tropical development shift from the Eastern and Central Atlantic to closer to home - particularly the Western Caribbean.
While this tends to limit the size and strength of tropical systems - a least compared to the long track Cape Verde hurricanes - cyclone genesis this close to the mainland can greatly reduce the amount of lead time available to prepare.
And make no mistake, October can generate strong hurricanes.Although it is only a tropical depression right now, the conditions suggest that by tomorrow T.D. 14 will become tropical storm Michael. And by late Tuesday, probably a hurricane.
While moving slowly right now, this system's forward speed is expected to accelerate rapidly once it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Intensity forecasts are the least accurate, but some models suggest a CAT 1 or CAT 2 storm at landfall.
And while everyone looks to the place of landfall, this system looks like it will race quickly to the Northeast, bringing rain, wind, and potential inland flooding to Alabama, Northern Florida, Georgia, and even the Carolinas.They key messages from the NHC at 11am read:
The NHC maps above show the current forecast cone for center of this proto-storm, but does not indicate the full extent of impact. Residents along Florida's west coast will likely feel some impacts, and as we've seen in the past (i.e. 2004's Hurricane Charley), these storms can sometimes make unexpected moves.
Gulf coastal residents - from Florida's west coast to New Orleans - need to monitor this system, and be prepared to act if this storm threatens their region.As always, when it comes to getting the latest information on hurricanes, your first stop should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.
If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov.
