#14,059
My thanks to @Crof for tweeting me a head's-up on Hong Kong's first detection of the African Swine Fever virus in a pig imported (ex Guangdong Province) for slaughter earlier this month.
The healthy-looking infected pig was brought into the Sheung Shui abattoir more than a week ago, and a routine tissue sample was reserved for testing. Positive results came back yesterday afternoon (Hong Kong time).In the meantime, the pig was processed and entered the food chain - and while that doesn't pose a human health risk - it does provide a potential conduit for the virus to spread (via contaminated food products) in Hong Kong.
All of which prompted an emergency interdepartmental meeting to discuss how to prevent further spread of the virus, and a press conference (see transcript below).
Secretary for Food & Health Prof Sophia Chan:
The Agriculture, Fisheries & Conservation Department confirmed this afternoon that African Swine Fever (AFS) virus was found in a pig in the Sheung Shui Slaughterhouse. So I just now chaired an inter-departmental meeting at once with the AFCD as well as the Centre for Food Safety and the Food & Environmental Hygiene Department to discuss the response action and also any follow-up work. So in order to minimise the risk of ASF virus spreading from the slaughterhouse, all pigs in Sheung Shui Slaughterhouse will be culled so that thorough cleansing and also disinfection could be conducted.
The operation of the Sheung Shui Slaughterhouse will be suspended until the completion of the disinfection work. So we envisage that fresh pork supply will be reduced in the near future. However, as Tsuen Wan Slaughterhouse is not affected and will operate as normal, there will still be a limited supply of live pigs available to the market.
We would repeat that ASF will not be transmitted to humans and hence poses no food safety risk. So well-cooked pork is safe for consumption. Finally, we will enhance the surveillance and also testing of pigs, and currently we collect samples from pigs with ASF symptoms for testing, and in the future we will step up the sampling of other pigs for testing.
While Hong Kong SAR has 43 pig farms and roughly 50,000 pigs (cite SCMP), it imports 3,500 to 4,000 pigs a day from the mainland to meed the needs of its 7 million residents.
Mainland China, which reported its first outbreak of ASF last September, remains remarkably silent about any recent outbreaks, and has not updated their MOA surveillance page since April 21st.
The FAO's latest ASF update (May 9th) on China reads essentially the same as it has the last two updates, citing a loss of just over 1 million pigs to date.
ChinaUnofficially, we continue to see persistent rumors (Google search `死猪') and media reports (see Reuters report Piles of pigs: Swine fever outbreaks go unreported in rural China), strongly suggesting that China's African Swine Fever epidemic is far larger than official numbers would suggest.
Since the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) confirmed its first African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Liaoning Province on 3 August 2018, 129 ASF outbreaks detected in 31 Provinces/Autonomous Region/Municipalities. MARA reported on 23 April 2019 that 1,020,000 pigs have been culled in an effort to halt further spread [reference].
A month ago, a Rabobank Research report estimated that between 150-200 million Chinese pigs have already been infected with ASF - more than all the pigs in Europe - and that China's pig production will drop 30% in 2019.
You'll find the full report at:
Rising African Swine Fever Losses to Lift All Protein BoatsIn recent days some estimates from industry observers would make this Rabobank estimate overly optimistic (see Pig Progress ASF China: Global agribusiness suffers; estimates vary), suggesting China has already lost 50% of their pig population.
Animal Protein
Grains & Oilseeds
Agri Commodity Markets April 2019
Other organizations, like the FAO and the USDA, expect more moderate losses.Given that China treats disease outbreaks and negative economic news as national security issues, we may never know the full extent of their ASF outbreak.
It is also likely that some farmers, and local officials, are reluctant to pass bad news up the chain of command - something which has a history of producing negative consequences at a local level - leaving the MOA with incomplete numbers as well.Hong Kong's government news service (News.gov.hk) summarizes yesterday's announcement below.
Pig cull to curb virus spread
May 10, 2019
Download Video| Transcript
Secretary for Food & Health Prof Sophia Chan today said all pigs in Sheung Shui Slaughterhouse will be culled after African Swine Fever (ASF) virus was found in a pig there.
Prof Chan chaired an inter-departmental meeting to discuss the response action and follow-up work after the Agriculture, Fisheries & Conservation Department confirmed that a sample taken from a pig at the slaughterhouse tested positive for the virus.
“In order to minimise the risk of ASF virus spreading from the slaughterhouse, all pigs in Sheung Shui Slaughterhouse will be culled so that thorough cleansing and also disinfection could be conducted.
“The operation of the Sheung Shui Slaughterhouse will be suspended until the completion of the disinfection work.”
Prof Chan said there are about 6,000 pigs at the slaughterhouse.
“We envisage that fresh pork supply will be reduced in the near future. However, as Tsuen Wan Slaughterhouse is not affected and will operate as normal, there will still be a limited supply of live pigs available to the market.”
The health chief said ASF poses no food safety risk as it will not be transmitted to humans, adding that well-cooked pork is safe for consumption.
“We will enhance the surveillance and also testing of pigs, and currently we collect samples from pigs with ASF symptoms for testing, and in the future we will step up the sampling of other pigs for testing.”
The pig concerned was imported from a Guangdong pig farm, and the Centre for Food Safety is investigating the source of the virus infection.
