Avian Flu Diary: NHC Watching The Tropics

#14,203

Although the NHC only gives it a low (20%) chance of development over the next 5 days - and the latest GFS and EURO model runs don't `see' it yet - this is the time of year when storm formation often occurs close in to land (see July Tropical Climatology), which can allow only limited time to prepare.

This morning's tropical outlook advises interests in the Central and Northern Bahamas, along with the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys to monitor the progress of this system.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00

KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for development, they are expected to become a little more conducive over the next few days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Interests in the Central and Northwest Bahamas, and the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

If you live anywhere where in `hurricane country' and haven't done so already, now is a good time to visit NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

While this blog, and many other internet sources, will cover this year's hurricane season your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes - and other major disasters - you may wish to revisit: