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| Heat Index Forecast Saturday, July 20th |
#14,196
With more than half of the continental United States expecting a scorching mid-summer weekend, it is worth repeating that the biggest weather-related killer in the United States each year isn't hurricanes, tornadoes, lightening, floods or blizzards . . . but rather heat waves.
Excessive heat has likely killed more Americans over the past 50 years than all of the tornadoes, floods, and hurricanes combined.In 2002 Rupa Basu and Jonathan M. Samet wrote in the Journal Epidemiological Reviews (see Relation between Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality: A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence):
An average of 400 deaths annually are counted as directly related to heat in the United States, with the highest death rates occurring in persons aged 65 years or more (3). The actual magnitude of heat-related mortality may be notably greater than what has been reported, since we do not have widely accepted criteria for determining heat-related death (4, 5–7), and heat may not be listed on the death certificate as causing or contributing to death.This disparity between counted and estimated heat-related deaths can be illustrated by the reports from the infamous heat wave of 1980, which `officially’ claimed `more than 1250 lives’ (cite NOAA Heat Wave: A Major Summer Killer) but which unofficially may have killed as many as 10,000 (Tracking and Evaluating U.S. Billion Dollar Weather Disasters, 1980-2005 (Lott and Ross, 2006).
Eight years later, a heat wave across the central and eastern part of the nation killed as many as 7,500 people (cite). More recently, in 1999, a prolonged heat wave along the Eastern seaboard is believed to have killed 500 (cite).Between climate change, growing urban populations, and increasingly fragile infrastructure - particularly involving the power grid - the public health threat from prolonged heat waves is only expected to rise.
In 2015 the WMO (World Meteorology Organization) and the WHO (World Health Organization) issued new guidance on Heat Health Warning systems. From the press release:
WMO, WHO Issue Guidance on Heat Health Warning Systems
News
1 July 2015
Geneva 1 July 2015 (WMO) The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have issued new joint guidance on Heat–Health Warning Systems to address the health risks posed by heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and more intense as a result of climate change.(Continue . . . )
While rarely mentioned, modern building architecture and home design often contribute to heat related deaths. Many windows no longer open, ceilings are lower, overhangs shorter, and temperature control is nearly completely dependent upon high tech equipment and a steady supply of electricity.
In late June of 2012 an unusually strong storm front, known as a Derecho, swept across parts of the Eastern United States – killing 15 people – and leaving millions without electrical power for more than a week (see Picking Up The Pieces)
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| Severe weather reports from 2012 Derecho |
Adding to the misery the region remained under an EHE (Extreme Heat Event) advisory for the next two weeks resulting in dozens of heat-related deaths. The following year the CDC's MMWR released a report on Heat-Related Deaths during this event.
(Excerpt)
This report describes 32 heat-related deaths in Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia that occurred during the 2 weeks following the storms and power outages. Median age of the decedents was 65 years, and most of the excessive heat exposures occurred within homes.While natural disasters like severe storms, hurricanes, and even earthquakes can interrupt the flow of electricity, our ageing and overburdened power grid is essentially a patchwork quilt of old and new technologies, with some of its vital components older than I am.
Every four years the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) releases a report card on America’s infrastructure, and their latest (2017) grades our cumulative score for infrastructure sits at only a D+, and two of our most vulnerable infrastructures are drinking water and the electrical grid.
They warn:
Overview
Much of the U.S. energy system predates the turn of the 21st century. Most electric transmission and distribution lines were constructed in the 1950s and 1960s with a 50-year life expectancy, and the more than 640,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines in the lower 48 states’ power grids are at full capacity. Energy infrastructure is undergoing increased investment to ensure long-term capacity and sustainability; in 2015, 40% of additional power generation came from natural gas and renewable systems.
Without greater attention to aging equipment, capacity bottlenecks, and increased demand, as well as increasing storm and climate impacts, Americans will likely experience longer and more frequent power interruptions.(Continue . . . )
With this weekend's forecast in mind, some timely advice from the CDC's EXTREME HEAT website. Follow the link to learn to to prepare for, and respond to, extreme heat events.
Having sweltered-in-place following hurricanes and other summer power outages, I've take some aggressive preparedness steps, including having plenty of water stockpiled, and creating some `cooling' options for when the power is out.
The easiest, and least expensive option is to buy one or more solar powered USB batteries (see below) and a USB powered fan.
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| Battery, Solar Panel, Fan & Light - About $50. |
(Note: Newer products now have 20,000 and 25,000 milliamp batteries and larger (4 fold) solar panels)
While limited in terms of what they can power (and for how long), these setups are ideal for those who need a light weight bug-out friendly solution, or for anyone who isn't comfortable with creating more complex systems.
For details on how I built a more robust emergency power system, you may wish to revisit:
Preparedness: Some Emergency Power Solutions
