Avian Flu Diary: August Tropical Climatology

Signs of Activity - Today's 5-Day tropical Outlook

#14,222

Although the Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1st, we really begin to pay attention in early August and running until the end of October; the heart of the season. Statistically, hurricane activity peaks around September 10th (see chart below).

But August has history of producing some very large, and infamous, storms including Harvey (2017), Katrina (2005), Charley (2004), Andrew (1992), and Camille in 1969. Hurricane Donna (1960) - the first storm I can personally remember - formed in August but wasn't upgraded to a hurricane until Sept 1st.

While early season storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean, as ocean temperatures rise late in summer, and winds aloft become more favorable, hurricanes tend to form farther to the east, giving them more time grow before encountering land (see below).

You can find much more on Hurricane Climatology at NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.

Every year I give hurricane preparedness a prominent place in this blog because I grew up in hurricane country, live there now, and have more than a passing acquaintance with these storms.

For more than 50 million Americans living in coastal areas, hurricanes and their byproducts (flooding, tornadoes, lightning) are probably their greatest natural disaster threat.

While South Florida and the northern Gulf coast are at highest risk of direct hurricane impact, even those areas not shaded in – even hundreds of miles inland – can still feel the effects of a hurricanes.

If you live anywhere where in `hurricane country' and haven't done so already, now is a good time to visit NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

There are some excellent internet hurricane resources online, but the two I heartily recommend are Mark Sudduth's excellent YouTube channel and http://hurricanetrack.com/ - and for true weather nerds like me - Mike's https://spaghettimodels.com/ is a daily stop.

But your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes - and other major disasters - you may wish to revisit: