#14,274
I mentioned yesterday that a `precious few' computer models suggested Dorian could turn north before striking Florida, but most were still focused on a South Florida Landfall.
While a lot can still change in next few days, those models appear to be gaining in numbers and credibility, and today's 5am Forecast keeps the worst of Dorian off the east coast of Florida and shifts its impact to north of Savannah.But a shift west of as little as 80 to 100 miles could change that scenario completely. A big chunk of Florida is still within the 3-day cone of uncertainty, and by days four and five, the bulk of 3 states are under the gun.
This morning's NHC Forecast Discussion states:
The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members.
The new track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue. It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.
So, while I'm hoping Florida has dodged a bullet - it is by no means a sure thing - and even if true, Dorian could still pose a significant threat further up the east coast. Residents in Georgia and the Carolinas need to follow the progress of this storm.
This morning's key messages reminds Floridians that ` Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week . . . .', and that they should continue to have their hurricane plans in place.
We are just now moving into the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (see graphic below), and it could last another 45 to 60 days. During that time, we could easily see several more hurricanes threaten the mainland of the United States.
If you prepared for Dorian, and it turns away, count your blessings and then consider it a good `dry run' for what could come in the next couple of months.
If you live anywhere where in `hurricane country' and haven't done so already, now is a good time to visit NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.
Your primary source of
forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. The National Hurricane center will issue major updates today at 11am, 5pm, and again at 11pm.
These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.
