#14,471
Although the models don't make it into much of a threat, late season storms can be unpredictable, and so interests along the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico need to keep an eye on an area of suspicion in the Bay of Campeche which the National Hurricane Center is giving an 80% chance of further development.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico.
The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico, see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.A reminder that the Atlantic Hurricane Season extends to November 30th, and while we are past the peak of the season, serious storms are still possible.
