China NHC : Epidemic Speeding Up - Virus May Be Transmitted During Incubation Period

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One of the reasons why SARS was successfully contained in 2002 was that those who were infected did not appear to transmit the virus to others during its incubation period, before they exhibited  symptoms. 

Although a small number of asymptomatic cases were detected, they did not appear to contribute significantly to disease transmission either.

Several hours ago China's National Health Commission held a lengthy press conference on the expanding novel coronavirus epidemic.

Time: January 26, 2020
Location: Information Office of the State Council
Host: Deputy Director of the Information Bureau of the State Council Xi Yanchun Jun Jiabin

Guests

• Director of the National Health Committee and Secretary of the Party Committee Ma Xiaowei
• Deputy Director of the National Health Committee and Member of the Party Group Li Bin
• Industry and Information Wang Xiaoping, Deputy Minister of Chemical Industry, Liu Xiaoming, Deputy Minister of Transportation,

The full transcript (in Chinese) is well worth reading, but the most pertinent statements came from Ma Xiaowei, who was asked by a TASS correspondent:

TASS reporter:

Regarding the epidemic, how long will it take to deal with the epidemic? Any comment? Thank you. 2020-01-26 17:10:19

Because of the importance of his reply, I've run his statement through 3 different translators in order to get the most readable result (highlighting mine):

Ma Xiaowei:

At present, the situation of epidemic situation is serious and complicated, and it is in a critical period of prevention and control. From the perspective of the scope of dissemination, some outbreaks in Wuhan and nationwide multi-point dissemination have appeared. In addition to Tibet, 30 provinces across the country have confirmed and suspected cases, China's Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions have found cases, and some countries around the country have also found cases.

From the characteristics of transmission, some patients have low or normal temperature in early stage, there are more cases of light diseases, and there are hidden infected persons. 

At present, there is a trend of increasing virus infection, and the "infectious source of walking" greatly increases the difficulty of prevention and control. From the view of epidemic situation, the main way is respiratory transmission, we still have a very limited understanding of the new coronavirus, the source of infection has not been found, the mechanism of the spread of the disease and the virus mutation are not clear.

As a new infectious disease, it is not ruled out that the virus may change for a period of time, there may be some new circumstances, the virus harm to different age groups is also changing.  

We have experience in fighting atypical pneumonia, and after three to four months from the discovery to the outbreak and prevalence of the atypical pneumonia epidemic, the new type of coronavirus infection, and the patients with mild diseases, the incubation period is also contagious, judging from the observation of the situation, the incubation period is about 10 days, the shortest one is 1 day, the longest is 14 days, which is very different from the atypical pneumonia epidemic.

At present, the epidemic is speeding up, and I'm afraid it will continue for some time, and there may be an increase in cases. 

With the adoption of personnel control measures in Wuhan region and the universal initiation of the first-level response to public health emergencies in all provinces, corresponding measures have been taken, the prevention and control work will be further strengthened. It is expected that in a period of time, the prevention and control measures will gradually produce effect. 2020-01-26 17:11:05       

          (Continue .  . . .)

Not particularly good news, although I would caution that all of the information we are getting right now is preliminary, and much of it is anecdotal. Events are moving quickly in China, and elsewhere, and much of the information we get must be taken with a large grain of salt.

That said, the epidemic in China appears to be gaining momentum, and so enhanced transmissibility (over SARS) can't be discounted.

Stay tuned.