#14,708
Five days ago, in Imperial College London: Estimating Number Of Coronavirus Cases In Wuhan, China, we looked at a fast-tracked analysis of the likely spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan City, China that suggested the number of cases were estimated to be 1,723 (95% CI: 427 – 4,471) at a time when the official number was still 41.
Since then we've seen a huge jump in the numbers, with at least 258 in Wuhan City, and scores more reported around Mainland China. The number of exported cases outside of Mainland China has tripled as well.With new, rapidly escalating numbers, researchers at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London have released a second report, which more than doubles the previous estimate.
I've only posted some excerpts from the latest report, so follow the link to read it in its entirety.
22 January 2020 - Imperial College London
Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China
Natsuko Imai, Ilaria Dorigatti, Anne Cori, Christl Donnelly, Steven Riley, Neil M. Ferguson
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease ModellingMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UKCorrespondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
Background
On the 31st December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1]. A novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) related to the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome virus (MERS-CoV) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus (SARS-CoV) has since been implicated [2].
As of 4am 21st January (Beijing Time) 2020, 440 cases (including nine deaths) have been confirmed across 13 provinces in China, plus suspected cases in multiple other provinces [3]. As of 9:00 GMT 22nd January 7 confirmed cases in travellers from Wuhan with symptom onset on or before the 18th January were detected outside mainland China in Thailand (3 cases), Japan (1 case), South Korea (1 case), Taiwan (1 case) and the United States (1 case) [4–10]. Chinese authorities have also confirmed evidence of human-to-human transmission, as well as 15 cases in healthcare workers [11,12]. Of these cases, four travelled before exit screening in Wuhan International Airport was introduced on 15th January [13], three (South Korea, Taiwan, USA) on or after.
Using the number of cases detected outside mainland China with who had disease onset by 18th January, it is possible (see Report 1 [14]) to infer the number of clinically comparable cases within Wuhan City that may have occurred thus far. Here we update our estimates to account for the additional international exported cases (7 cases).
Summary
We estimate that a total of 4,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (uncertainty range: 1,000 – 9,700) had onset of symptoms by 18th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case) [15].
Our estimates should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size in the period 12th January to 18th January – delays in confirming and reporting exported cases and incomplete information about dates of symptom onset together with the still very small numbers of exported cases mean we are unable to estimate the epidemic growth rate at the current time.
(Continue . . .)
