Wuhan - Credit Wikipedia
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The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission released their daily update shortly before midnight (local time), and the good news is the number of coronavirus cases remains unchanged, at 41. Five patients were deemed cured, and released today, while a second patient died.
Five cases remain in serious or critical condition, while the remaining 22 are listed in stable condition. It is worth noting that most of these `stable' cases have now been hospitalized for 2 weeks or longer.Today's fatality is a 69 y.o. male, who presented with or developed heart damage, renal failure, multi-organ failure, and severe pneumonia. It isn't entirely clear what comorbidities (other than age) may have contributed to his death.
First today's update, then I'll return with a postscript.
Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Committee's report on pneumonia of new coronavirus infection
Issuing authority: Wuhan City health committee | Published: 2020-01-16 23:55:45
At 04:00 on January 15, 2020, there were no new cases of pneumonitis infected with new coronavirus in our city. Five patients were discharged from the hospital and one new death was reported.
The deceased Xiong Moumou, male, 69 years old, became ill on December 31, 2019, became worse on January 4, 2020, and was transferred to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for treatment. He was admitted with severe myocarditis (myocardial enzymes reached 20 times normal, Electrocardiographic abnormalities); abnormal renal function; severe damage to multiple organ functions; chest CT showed pulmonary fibrous lesions and pleural effusion and pleural thickening. Considering tuberculosis and pleural tuberculosis, died at 00:45 on January 15 due to ineffective rescue .
As of now, the city has reported a total of 41 cases of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection, 12 cases have been cured and discharged, 5 cases are being treated in severe cases, and 2 cases have died. The remaining patients are in stable condition. All patients received isolation treatment at designated medical institutions in Wuhan. A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 644 medical observations have been lifted, and 119 medical observations are still underway. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.
January 16, 2020While it is encouraging that we aren't seeing the kind of mortality rate among hospitalized cases that we've seen with MERS-CoV (35%) or even SARS (10%), and a significant portion of cases appear to experience either mild or moderate illness, the data set we have so far is too small to make any firm conclusions about the potential impact from this coronavirus.
The fact that only about 30% of the known cases have recovered after 2 weeks (or more) of hospital care is sobering, and one can't help but wonder what the impact would be for patients in a low resource setting, one where modern medical care is far less available.Fourteen years ago we looked at a Lancet study that predicted another 1918-like pandemic could claim as many 62 million lives, and that 96% of those deaths would occur in developing countries. The authors cited as much as a 30-fold difference in mortality rates around the world in 1918.
Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918—20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis
Prof Christopher JL Murray DPhil , Prof Alan D Lopez PhD, Brian Chin ScB, Dennis Feehan AB , Prof Kenneth H Hill PhD
A reminder that even a `manageable' illness in the developed world can prove devastating in places that are ill-equipped to deal with it. While this coronavirus may not have the `legs' to produce a global impact, even limited spread could prove disastrous on a local level.
For more, you may wish to revisit:
Are We Prepared to Help Low-Resource Populations Mitigate a Severe Pandemic?
