#14,889
There seems to be a lot of speculation in the media in recent days that China's cases counts have `stabilized', and that their epidemic may have peaked. And if you go only by the total number of confirmed cases each day, that would appear to be true.
But while the total number of cases reported each day has declined, the percentage of severe cases has gone up dramatically. In last night's report from China's NHC, 58% of all positive cases were listed as severe.
Update on the epidemic situation of new coronavirus pneumonia as of 24:00 on February 17
Published: 2020-02-18
At 04:00 on February 17, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 1886 new confirmed cases, 1097 new severe cases, and 98 new deaths (93 in Hubei, and 3 in Henan). Cases, one in Hebei and one in Hunan), with 1432 new suspected cases.Two weeks ago, when daily case counts were double what they are now, severe cases made up only about 11% of the total (see below).
Update on pneumonia of new coronavirus infections as of 24:00 on February 4
Published: 2020-02-05
At 04:00 on February 4th, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 3887 newly confirmed cases (3156 cases in Hubei Province), and 431 new severe cases (377 cases in Hubei Province).Since the available data suggests that most people experience mild or moderate illness, there is obviously some testing bias - towards testing only the sickest of the sick - going on here.
Understandable, particularly in Hubei Province, where healthcare capacity is stretched to the breaking point, but it is also likely the same approach is now being taken in other Mainland Provinces.Assuming the 11% severe percentage is closer to reality - if China were testing as broadly today as they were 2 weeks ago - the `real number' of cases should be 4 to 5 times higher than we are seeing today. Of course, the numbers from 2 weeks ago were suspect as well, as many mild or moderate cases were still undoubtedly uncounted.
There is nothing wrong with only testing the sickest patients, particularly once community transmission becomes widespread.We stopped testing every suspected case of H1N1pdm during the 2009 pandemic within a matter of weeks, simply because it quickly became no longer practical or particularly probative to verify every case.
While I would like to be reassured by the recent drop in cases, that probably tells us more about China's recent selectivity in testing - and perhaps their ability to admit and treat patients - than it does about the current trajectory and spread of COVID-19.
