 |
| Credit CDC |
#14,820
Like everyone else, I'm constantly evaluating the latest reports and talking to others in the infectious disease community, as I try to guess the path this novel coronavirus takes over the months ahead.
Unfortunately, we don't have all the information we need to make an informed assessment. Much of what is going on in China is unverifiable, and the data sample we have from outside of China is too small, and too recent, to rely on.And so reasonable observers can look at the same data and see hopes for containment, or reasons to expect this epidemic will expand into a pandemic.
Science magazine today has published an in-depth look at both scenarios, asking experts from around the world what their take is on 2019-nCoV becoming a pandemic contender. It is a good and illuminating read by a couple of best science writers in the business.
I highly recommend you hit the link below and read it in its entirety. I'll have a brief postscript when you return.
Will novel virus go pandemic or be contained?
Kai Kupferschmidt, Jon Cohen
Science 07 Feb 2020:
Vol. 367, Issue 6478, pp. 610-611
DOI: 10.1126/science.367.6478.610
The (long-retired) paramedic in me believes in going into any unknown situation as prepared as one can, while still hoping for the best. I still own two ambu-bags, even though I haven't had to use one in decades. Old habits die hard.
While I'm increasingly convinced containment of this novel coronavirus is unlikely, I still believe it's a shot we must take. Even if doesn't succeed, it should slow the spread of the virus, and that can make a huge difference in our ability to respond.But even if we get lucky, and this virus is stopped, this won't be the last pandemic threat we face. And the next one may present an even bigger challenge than this novel coronavirus.
One that we need to be far better prepared to face.
