#14,923
Over the past 48 hours we've seen recent travelers from Iran diagnosed with COVID-19 in Canada and Lebanon, and now two more (a husband and wife) in the UAE. During this same time period we've seen 28 cases (and 5 deaths) announced by the Iranian authorities.
All of this suggests that COVID-19 has been spreading, unnoticed, in Iran for 2 or more weeks, and there are concerns that what is being reported is only the tip of the iceberg.First this report from the Emirates News Agency, then I'll return with a postscript.
Sat 22-02-2020 16:04 PM
MoHAP announces two new cases of coronavirus
ABU DHABI, 22nd February, 2020 (WAM) -- The UAE Ministry of Health and Prevention, MoHAP, announced two new cases of the new coronavirus, identified as "COVID19", including a 70-year-old Iranian visitor, whose health is unstable and he is in the intensive care unit.
The last case brings the number of those infected in the UAE to 13 with three having recovered.
The ministry added that while screening all those who were in contact with him, his 64-year wife, was also confirmed with the infection.
MoHAP affirmed that it was screening everyone in close contact with the confirmed cases to "avert spreading of the disease and ensure the safety of the community."
According to the available studies to date issued by the World Health Organisation, WHO, more than 80 per cent of patients who have mild symptoms such as fever and coughing are recovering. It also indicated the death rate from COVID19 does not exceed 0.2 per cent, but the percentage increases with the increase in age or if the person suffers from chronic diseases.
The ministry said that in coordination with health and other concerned authorities in the country, it has been following a very effective epidemiological monitoring mechanism, and taking all the necessary precautions to ensure highly efficient preventive measures, including check-ups and observation of the people who have been in contact with patients, in accordance with the best global practices.
It urged the public to follow the preventive procedures and to read the awareness instructions, available on its website and the official websites of health authorities in the UAE.
"The public is also advised to adopt protective health behaviour to avoid infectious diseases, including washing their hands with soap and clean water, and covering the mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing to stop the spread of germs and viruses," the statement added.
WAM/Hazem Hussein
Up until this week - and particularly the past 72 hours - we've been viewing COVID-19 largely through an official (and not always reliable) `Chinese lens'. Outbreaks outside of Mainland China had been small, and cases were mostly epidemiologically linked to travel to China or contact with known cases.
A week ago, the WHO was reporting just over 200 cases outside of China.Over the past 7 days, that number has increased more than 6-fold, and there is growing evidence of a large number of undetected cases in Iran, Italy, South Korea, and likely a lot more in other countries where we aren't getting surveillance or reporting.
The always faint hope that China might somehow contain this virus is now pretty much moot. The virus is in our court now.While countries will continue to try to contain this virus, we are rapidly moving towards the time where countries will have to move away from containment and towards mitigation strategies. While those can help slow the spread of the virus, and potentially save lives, they can be highly disruptive.
If you haven't already listened to yesterday's CDC briefing (see CDC COVID-19 Briefing - Feb 21st (Audio)) - now would be a good time to do so.And after you do, you'll want to read the MMWR's Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017, in order to get a good idea of what mitigation might look like in the United States if community spread begins.
