Monday, March 23, 2020

Italy: 63,927 COVID-19 Cases - 6077 Deaths














#15,130

Italy's COVID-19 crisis continues to escalate, but over the past two days we've seen a significant  reduction in the number of new daily cases, which suggests that the nationwide `lockdown' imposed just over two weeks ago is beginning to have a positive impact.
Today Italy reports 4,789 new cases and 601 additional deaths.  Terrible numbers until you recall that just last Saturday Italy reported a record setting 6557 New COVID-19 Cases & 793 Deaths.
Italy's preliminary case fatality rate (CFR) continues to rise, with Lombardy in Northern Italy reporting a staggering 13.1% loss of life, while in the rest of Italy the CFR runs roughly 6.5%.  Both rates are likely skewed higher due to a large, but unknown number of mild or moderate infections not being counted, but even so, the actual death toll in Italy is quite concerning.

Anecdotal reports suggest that a significant number of deaths have been caused by a lack of ICU and/or Ventilator beds, and that difficult triage decisions are being made in many hospitals (see Cold Calculations: The Realities Of Ventilator Triage).
There have also been reports suggesting that some number of suspected COVID-19 related deaths have not been counted, and there may be uncounted non-COVID-19 fatalities that might have been avoided had the local hospital system not been overburdened by the pandemic. 
The goal of aggressive social distancing is to `flatten the curve', and avoid overrunning medical services in the way that Italy, and Iran, have done in recent weeks.  Assuming that the number of new cases continues to decline in Italy in the days ahead, we'll be getting a pretty good indication of the effectiveness of their lockdown.

The latest MOH report:

Covid-19 - Situation in Italy
The situation in Italy: 23 March 2020, 18.00

CURRENTLY POSITIVE  50418
DECEASED                         6077
HEALED                              7432
Press conference at 6 pm on March 23rd 
63927 total cases, currently positive people are 50418, 6077 dead and 7432 recovered.


Among the 50418 positives:
  • 26522 are found in home isolation
  • 20692 hospitalized with symptoms
  • 3204 in intensive care
Read the tables

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