#15,159
While the numbers being reported out of Italy are sobering, over the past week we've see a significant reduction in daily case counts, dropping from more than 6,500 ten days ago to just over 4000 a day for the past two days.
Three weeks after entering into a nationwide lockdown, this is clear evidence that their social distance strategy is working.Deaths, however, are always a lagging indicator, and over the past two days Italy has averaged more than 800 fatalities per day, raising their official death toll to 12,428. As high as that is, there are media reports suggesting that the actual toll could be considerably higher, as many non-hospital deaths may not have been tested.
Even so, the preliminary CFR (Case Fatality Rate) in Lombardy is an astronomical 16.67%, and for Italy as a whole, 11.7%. Both numbers clearly several times higher than anything we've seen reported anyplace else in the world.While it is probable that many mild and moderate cases have not been counted - and adding those in would substantially lower the CFR - there are also numerous reports of overwhelmed hospitals, and a lack of staffed ICU beds, which has likely also contributed to Italy's case fatality rate.
The after-action report from hard hit countries - including Italy - after this pandemic wave has passed, should tell us a great deal more about how, and why differing numbers of pandemic deaths occurred.And while Italy's numbers look huge today, they could easily be surpassed by other nations in the days and weeks ahead.
The situation in Italy: March 31, 2020, 6.00 p.m.
CURRENTLY POSITIVE 77635
DECEASED 12428
HEALED 15729
Press conference at 6 pm on March 31st
105,792 total cases, currently positive people are 77,635, 12,428 dead and 15,729 recovered.
Among the 77,635 positives:Read the tables
- 45,420 are in home isolation
- 28,192 hospitalized with symptoms
- 4,023 in intensive care
Italy situation as of March 31stBreakdown by provinces as of March 31st
