Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Italy: New COVID-19 Cases Slowing Dramatically, But Deaths Remain High














#15,136

We've been eagerly awaiting signs that Italy's nationwide lockdown has had a dampening effect on disease transmission, and for the 3rd day in a row we've seen a big drop in new COVID-19 cases.  Today, Italy announced only 2,249 new cases - a 65% drop over the number reported just last Saturday. 
While extremely good news, the other number of concern - fatal outcomes - continues to rise with 743 additional deaths reported over the past 24 hours. 
The preliminary CFR in hardest hit Lombardy continues to rise, and sits at 13.6%.  As a whole, Italy's case fatality rate currently sits at 9.8%, which is nearly 3 times higher than China reported. 

While it is probable that many mild and moderate cases have not been counted - and adding those in would substantially lower the CFR - there are also reports of excess winter mortality in Italy beyond deaths attributed to COVID-19, which could offset some of those reductions.
This demonstration of the impact of a two-week lockdown is validation of the public health measures being ordered by other nations, in an attempt to avoid the same sort of runaway epidemic Italy has endured. 
What happens when Italy - or any other country - relaxes these restrictions remains to be seen.


The situation in Italy: March 24, 2020, 18.00
CURRENTLY POSITIVE   54030
DECEASED                          6820
HEALED                               8326


Press conference at 6 pm on March 24th
66176 total cases, 54030 people are currently positive, 6820 died and 8326 recovered.
Among the 54030 positives:
  • 28697 are found in home isolation
  • 21937 hospitalized with symptoms
  • 3396 in intensive care
Read the tables Consult the map
 
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