#15,195
In 2007, a World Bank official estimatef the cost of a severe pandemic at up to `2 trillion dollars' (see Pricing A Pandemic). Today, even taking into account 13 years of inflation, we'd consider that a bargain.
This morning the IMF (International Monetary Fund) released their April Economic Outlook for our COVID-19 ravaged world.After projecting a greater economic impact in 2020 from COVID-19 than the 2008-2009 financial crisis - only under a highly optimistic baseline scenario of the pandemic fading away this fall - do they see a substantial recovery in 2021.
They warn that `The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. ' and the full report outlines several Alternative Evolutions in the Fight against COVID-19, although they acknowledge that other scenarios could produce `worse outcomes'.I've only reproduced the opening salvo to their April Outlook, so follow the link to read the full report (or at least, the executive summary), in its entirety.
World Economic Outlook, April 2020: Chapter 1
April 2020
World Economic Outlook, April 2020 -- The Great Lockdown
The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis.
In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support.
The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial. Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes, and the necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are an important investment in long-term human and economic health.
Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically. And internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems.
