It Happens Every Spring - 2020 Edition

DIXIE ALLEY UNDER THE GUN TODAY

#15,190

While most of us are homebound and consumed by the latest COVID-19 news, the natural processes of the world go on oblivious and unfazed by our pandemic concerns. Seismic fault zones slip inexorably towards their next climatic event, new pathogens continue to emerge, and severe weather is always on the horizon somewhere in the world. 

Today, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a moderate risk of severe weather, and an enhanced risk on Monday, across a wide swath of the Southern United States.

April and May are generally the top months for tornadoes in the South, while in June and July the risk moves more into the Midwestern states. As with hurricanes, the intensity of tornado seasons can vary considerably from year to year. 

Already in 2020, we've seen 33 people lose their lives to tornadoes in the US, with the worst outbreak on March 3rd claiming 19 lives in Tennessee.   

In 2011 - during a three day period (Apr 25th-28th) - a storm system of epic proportions generated 351 confirmed tornadoes across five southern states, killing 338 persons in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

Before and after imagery depicting tornado damage in the vicinity of the intersection of 15th St. E. and McFarland Blvd. E. in southeast Tuscaloosa, AL.

This was the the third deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. History. More than a dozen of these twisters reached intensities of 4 or 5 on the Enhanced Fujita [EF] scale, which can produce near total devastation.

All but a small part of the United States is vulnerable to these storms, and while more common in the spring and summer, they can happen anytime of the year. 

The strongest generally occur in an area we call Tornado Alley (below Left), which runs from middle Texas north though Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. This is the area where you will generally find the largest and most powerful tornadoes; the F5 wedge type.

Tornado Alley - Dixie Alley

Fortunately, much of the mid-west is sparsely populated, and so the number of tornado deaths that occur here are actually less than in other areas of the country. 

DIXIE ALLEY (above right) sees more frequent, albeit usually less severe tornadoes. Due to a higher population density, more deaths occur in Dixie Alley than in Tornado Alley most years.  

Which is why every home and office should have a NOAA weather radio. Once thought of as mainly a source of local weather information, it has now become an `All-Hazards' alert system as well.

Having a safe place to go in your home during a tornado can be life saving. A basement is best, but an interior hallway or windowless room may provide some protection as well. Even wearing some sort of head protection (e.g. a bike, motorcycle, football helmet, etc) has been suggested, and given limited credence by the CDC (see Helmet and Tornado Statement).

Tornadoes and hurricanes aren't the only severe weather threat. During the summer of 2012, a powerful Derecho swept across the Mid-Atlantic states (see Picking Up The Pieces), killing 15 and leaving nearly 4 million people without power, some for more than 2 weeks.

While 15 people died during the storm, at least 32 more died of heat-related illnesses in the two weeks that followed (see 2013 MMWR: Heat-Related Deaths After an Extreme Heat Event — Four States, 2012, and United States, 1999–2009).

And as a Floridian, I'm well aware that we are less than 50 days to the start of Hurricane season.  While the big storms usually wait until August or September, you can't always count on that.  

Having a good (and well rehearsed) family emergency plan is essential for any disaster. Even with a safe room, family members could become separated (they may be sent to different hospitals or shelters) in the post-disaster chaos.

Some may be injured and unable to provide information about their families.So it is important to set up a plan, including meeting places and out-of-state contacts, and individual wallet information cards - before you need it (see #NatlPrep : Create A Family Communications Plan).

Should any natural disaster strike now, while we are locked down during a pandemic, we should  expect its impacts will be both longer lasting and exacerbated.

Hospitals and first responders are already stretched thin in many places, FEMA is currently heavily embroiled in the pandemic response, and essential workers - who may be needed to restore power, or do emergency repairs or cleanup - may be slower to respond due to the lockdown.

Although preparing for a disaster is probably tougher now than at any time in our lifetimes, establishing a family emergency plan, putting together a decent first aid kit, and perhaps most importantly - arranging to have/and be a Disaster Buddy - can still be done, even from home. 

While the future course, duration, and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is uncertain, we can safely assume it won't happen in a vacuum. Facing those challenges with a modicum of preparedness - and a solid coalition of friends, relatives and/or neighbors - will go a long ways towards making it easier.