#15,166
Today's numbers from Italy - while still high - are slightly lower than yesterday's report, and offer further evidence that three weeks of lockdown and social distancing are having an effect. The official numbers (115,242 cases and 13,915 deaths) are undoubtedly massive undercounts, however.
Many mild or moderate infections have not been counted, which would drive Italy's apparent CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of roughly 12% far lower, but at the same time, an unknown number of COVID-19 deaths have gone uncounted as well.A story in today's Wall Street Journal (Italy’s Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported) illustrates the problems in counting COVID-19 - or any other infectious disease outbreak - fatalities. This is a topic we've looked at many times before (see Lancet: Estimating Global 2009 Pandemic Mortality).
While it is highly unlikely that Italy's CFR is anywhere near what the official numbers suggest, without a reasonable denominator (ttl number of cases) and an unknown numerator (number of deaths), we are left guessing.
While Italy has managed to flatten their curve, how long it will take to get the number of new infections low enough to allow for a relaxation of their strict social distancing measures, and restart their economy, is still a big unknown.
From today's update:
The situation in Italy: April 2, 2020, 6.00 p.m.
CURRENTLY POSITIVE 83049
DECEASED 13915
HEALED 18278
Press conference at 6 pm on April 2nd
115,242 total cases, currently positive people are 83,049, 13,915 died and 18,278 recovered.
Among the 83,049 positives:
- 50,456 are in home isolation
- 28,540 hospitalized with symptoms
- 4,053 in intensive care
Read the tables Consult the map
