#15,193
Although Italy's daily COVID-19 number continue to run about 30% off their highs of 3 weeks ago, they continue to average close to 4,000 new cases a day (23,960 cases over past 6 days), suggesting they still have a ways to go before they can relax their nationwide lockdown.
There are some encouraging signs, however, as on the 11th Italy reported 4,694 cases, yesterday dropping to 4,092 cases, and today just 3,153 new cases.As we've noted previously, Italy's apparent Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is running close to 13%, but that number is likely highly inflated by an undercounting of mild and moderate cases who were never tested.
First, the numbers from today's update, followed by a (translated) decree late last week to extend Italy's restrictions (with some modifications) until at least May 3rd.
The situation in Italy: April 13, 2020, 18.00
Press conference April 13, 6 p.m.
159,516 total cases since the start of the pandemic. There are currently 103,616 positive people, 20,465 dead and 35,435 recovered.
Changes compared to the previous bulletin:
- 3,153 new positive cases
- 566 deceased
- 1,224 healed
Among the 103,616 currently positive (+ 1,363):
- 72,333 are in home isolation (+ 1,270)
- 28,023 hospitalized with symptoms (+176)
- 3,260 in intensive care (- 83 )
Much of the world, including the United States, is watching to see whether Italy - which is widely perceived as being a 2 or 3 weeks further along in their epi curve - is able to successfully unwind their societal lockdown without re-igniting community transmission.
It now appears that the bulk of the `exceptional measures' that were put in place nearly 5 weeks ago by the Italian government won't be rolled back for at least another 3 weeks.
Count: restrictive measures extended to 3 May
In the press conference today, April 10, the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte confirmed that he had prepared a new Prime Ministerial Decree to extend the restrictive measures until May 3.
"A difficult decision - said President Giuseppe Conte - but a necessary decision, of which I take full political responsibility. It is a decision that I made after several meetings held with the team of Ministers, with the experts of our Technical Committee- scientific, with Regions, Provinces and Municipalities, with trade unions, the world of business, industry, with trade associations.
The Technical-Scientific Committee has given us confirmation: the signs of the epidemiological curve are encouraging. There are clear indications that the containment measures adopted so far by the Government are bearing fruit, but precisely for this reason we cannot nullify the efforts made so far. "
The President of the Council of Ministers recommended to keep the threshold of attention high even on these holidays, for Easter as for the bridges of April 25 and May 1.
Libraries, stationery stores and shops for babies and children reopen
The extension foreseen by the Dpcm, just signed, also applies to production activities. The intention is to loosen the measures to restart economic activities as soon as possible, but the conditions are not yet in place for this to be possible.
Compared to the previous restrictive measures relating to commercial activities, in the Decree there are some small variations, which concern partial reopenings. With the new Dpcm, starting from April 14th, the opening of stationery shops, bookstores and clothing stores for children and babies will be allowed and forestry and the wood industry are included among the permitted production activities.
Phase 2
Giuseppe Conte then recalled that "the government is already working to plan phase 2, we cannot wait for the virus to disappear from our country. The program - said Conte - rests on two pillars: the establishment of an expert committee in economic and social matters and the Protocol for safety in the workplace ".
The Committee of experts will be chaired by Vittorio Colao and made up of different professionals, selected from among the Italian excellences. The group of experts will dialogue with the Scientific Technical Committee to draw up a new organizational model. The Committee will have the task of developing and proposing necessary measures to face the emergency and for a gradual recovery in the various sectors of social, economic and productive activities.
The second pillar is the strengthening of the Protocol for safety in the workplace, already signed on March 14th.
