India: African Swine Fever Appears To Be Confirmed In Assam

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While there is no OIE Notification published yet, after reports last week (see Apr 26th   Unexplained Pig Deaths In India) from Assam - India's largest pork producing region - India now appears to have confirmed their first outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF).

Although ASF doesn't infect humans, it is generally 100% fatal in pigs, and there is no vaccine or treatment available.  The only solution is to cull infected (or exposed) pigs. 

Media reports over the weekend include:

African swine flu killing domestic pigs in Assam 

African swine fever: Assam told to go for culling

Centre Asks Assam Govt to Opt for Culling of Pigs Affected by African Swine Fever

And the following twitter post comes from a local official.

One of the major topics of 2019 BC (Before Coronavirus) was the global spread of African Swine Fever, which emerged in China in the fall of 2018, and has subsequently spread across nearly all of Eastern Asia. ASF is also rife in Eastern Europe and Russia (see UK: DEFRA Update On ASF In Eastern Europe/Belgium).

By some estimates, more than 25% of the world's pork supply has been lost to the virus over the past year (see New Scientist A quarter of all pigs have died this year due to African swine fever). 

Although the spread of ASF has taken a backseat to the COVID-19 pandemic in recent months, it continues to wreak havoc on the pork industry in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Russia.  

And there are genuine concerns it could someday  make its way to Australia, Western Europe, or even North America (see USDA Enhances Domestic ASF Surveillance Efforts).

Given the pandemic driven supply chain issues, and warnings of increased food insecurity around the world (see Poverty and food insecurity could grow dramatically as COVID-19 spreads), anything that further depletes or stresses the global food supply is a serious concern.

In addition to the carnage of ASF to the pork industry, parts of Europe are seeing big jumps in HPAI (H5N8), which has resulted in the culling of millions of ducks, turkeys, and chickens (see Bird Flu Hits 226 Farms in Southern Hungary).

And last year, China saw the first arrival of the Fall Armyworm, a highly destructive crop pest native to North & South America (see Update: Fall Armyworm Now in 15 of China’s Provinces). In June they were reported in Taiwan, and Japan reported their first occurrence in early July.

When taken individually, none of these agricultural crises are world changers. 

But, as the following FAO reports reminds us - globally there are scores of concurrent threats to the world's food supplies - and right now they report that  44 countries (34 in Africa, eight in Asia, and two in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food.

FCC - EARLY WARNING BULLETIN 

April 2020 - June 2020

Overview

During the period April to June 2020, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe where they can persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify. The dynamics and likelihood of the occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change and variability (droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – ENSO –), changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, human behaviour (cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.

In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (April to June 2020), FAO estimates that, globally, 44 countries (34 in Africa, eight in Asia, and two in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.

Main Food Chain Threats

Thirty two plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period April to June 2020. A total of 279 forecasts were conducted in 131 countries.

We live in a complex and interconnected world - and beyond the tragic suffering and death - food insecurity or famine can also spark huge societal upheavals (see Iran: Bird Flu, Food Insecurity & Civil Unrest), and even topple governments.

Which is why an outbreak of African Swine Fever in India, the arrival of the fall armyworm to China, or outbreaks of avian flu in Europe - while not as obvious of a threat as a human  pandemic virus - can have huge ripple effects, and deserves our continued attention.