Wednesday, May 27, 2020

NHC: 70% Chance Of Tropical Development Off South East Coastline




UPDATED: 0830 hrs EST

NHC Upgrades system to Tropical Storm Bertha
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC


#15,288

Although we are used to getting 36 to 48 hours warning prior to landfall, every once in awhile - particularly very early or very late in the Atlantic tropical season - we see a tropical storm pop up very near the coast providing us with very little advance warning.
Such is likely the case for a low pressure area, which has been lingering over Florida for the past couple of days producing heavy showers, that is now given a 70% chance of becoming the second named storm (Bertha)  of this busy pre-season before making landfall later today. 
At 7:35 am EST the National Hurricane Center issued the following special tropical update.



Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS 
National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low pressure near the southeast U.S. coast. Radar imagery indicates that the area of disturbed weather located just offshore the South Carolina Coast has become significantly better organized over the past few hours. 
Reports from an offshore buoy are showing that this system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. If these development trends continue, then this system is likely to become a tropical storm before it moves inland later today. 
Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding over portions of the Carolinas today. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through today.
1. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 3PM EDT Wednesday, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Latto
While these immature tropical storms generally lack a lot of punch, they can occasionally surprise us.
In June of 1982 a `no-name' storm sprung up overnight off the southwest coast of Florida - catching everyone by surprise - doing millions of dollars worth of damage and claiming at least 3 lives. 
Last week, we saw NOAA's Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, which calls for an unusually active 2020 hurricane season.


I spent last weekend charging up my rechargeable batteries, refreshing 30 gallons of fresh water supplies, and going over my hurricane plans and supplies.  If you live anywhere in `hurricane country' - and haven't already done so - now would be a good time to get prepared.
As we discussed a couple of weeks ago in Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different', our concurrent COVID-19 pandemic, and supply chain issues, will only further complicate preparation, and evacuation.
To help you prepare, below is a list of this month's hurricane preparedness blogs:
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 7 - Complete A Written Plan
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 6 - Help Your Neighbors
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 5 - Strengthen Your Home
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 4 - Get An Insurance Check-up
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 3 - Assemble Disaster Supplies
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 2 - Develop An Evacuation Plan
National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Day 1 - Determine Your Risk
Hurricane Preparedness Week 2020

Your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.