Avian Flu Diary: Hong Kong Exceeds 3,000 Cases - Hospitals Increasingly Under Stress

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For the eighth day in a row Hong Kong is reporting more than 100 new COVID-19 cases (n=118), surpassing the 3,000 benchmark. In just the past 3 weeks, their case count has more than doubled, hospitalizations have increased 5-fold, and the number of deaths has more than tripled.

Despite this dramatic rise, Hong Kong did a remarkable keeping a lid on COVID-19 for nearly six months, and had dampened down local transmission to the point that in May they were able to reopens schools and most businesses.

But by early July cracks were beginning to show, as imported cases repeatedly reintroduced the virus into the city. On July 10th, in Hong Kong Closing Schools Again As Local COVID Cases Jump, we saw Hong Kong begin to ratchet down again.

Yesterday Hong Kong's Hospital Authority announced new measures to try to free up hospital isolation beds as the case counts continue to rise.

HA tries its best to free up hospital beds for confirmed patients

July 28, 2020

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The Hospital Authority said that in view of the rapid increase in new diseases and insufficient beds, some confirmed patients are still waiting to be admitted. The authorities arrange for those who are more stable to stay at home or in quarantine facilities, and they will be notified as soon as possible when they have a bed.

The Chief Administrative Manager (Patient Safety and Risk Management) of the Hospital Authority, He Wanxia, said at a briefing today that the supply of isolation beds has been under pressure recently, and the authorities have tried their best to arrange for some patients to be transferred to second-line isolation beds and community isolation in Lei Yue Mun Park and Resort Facilities to free up the first-line isolation beds for the more severely ill.

As of today, 230 patients have been transferred to the second-line isolation ward, and more than 100 patients in stable conditions have been transferred to the community isolation facilities in Lei Yue Mun Park and Resort.

He Wanxia also said that the Hospital Authority has recently introduced antibody testing in its laboratories, and it is hoped that it can better understand the patient's recovery progress and infectiousness. After some patients recover, the authorities will make appropriate arrangements to free up hospital beds to accept other patients.

Also yesterday, Hong Kong City Administrator Carrie Lam issued a statement that Hong Kong was on ". . . verge of a large-scale community outbreak, which may lead to a collapse of our hospital system and cost lives, especially of the elderly" (see BBC Coronavirus: Hong Kong on verge of 'large-scale' outbreak, says Carrie Lam).

Meanwhile - in what would be a blow to Hong Kong's democratic movement - local public broadcaster RTHK is reporting that (according to unnamed sources) Hong Kong's government is considering postponing September's local elections until next year.

Legco election could be delayed for a year

2020-07-29 HKT 13:52

Sources have told RTHK that the government is studying the possibility of postponing the Legislative Council election for a year, with little hope that the Covid-19 outbreak will be brought under control by September.

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A month ago Hong Kong was being hailed as a poster child for successfully controlling COVID-19 while they re-opened schools, businesses, and reduced social distancing requirements. While that reputation is slipping, Hong Kong is still only reporting about 1/10th (per capita) the number of cases being reported right now in the United States.

Aggressive contact tracing and isolation - combined with enhanced social distancing and universal masking - are likely still viable options to bring this outbreak under control. But how quickly that can happen - and at what cost - remain open questions.

Unfortunately, Hong Kong isn't alone in this backsliding. After months without any locally acquired cases Vietnam is now rushing to contain an outbreak in Da Nang (see VOA After Nearly Erasing COVID-19, Vietnam Grapples with a Spike), Australia has seen a resurgence in COVID cases (see chart below), and Germany is struggling as well.