Thursday, July 30, 2020

NHC: An Uncertain T.S. Isaias & Its COVID Testing Impacts


#15,389

For the past few days the National Hurricane Center has been tracking a large, diffuse area of disturbed weather as it approached the Lesser Antilles.  Overnight, as it approached Puerto Rico, this system coalesced into the 9th tropical storm of 2020; Isaias. 

While the above graphic (5am NHC) shows Isaias brushing the east coast of Florida as a tropical storm in 3 or 4 days, the track and ultimate intensity of this storm remains highly uncertain.

In fact, we probably won't have a decent handle on this storm's future for another day or two. It could be shredded by the mountains of Hispaniola, or invigorated by the warm waters north of the islands. Some intensity models even suggest Isaias will become a hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center's 5am Discussion addresses these unknowns.
The intensity forecast is quite tricky.  In the short term, Isaias is expected to move across Hispaniola, as the storm's interaction with the mountainous island should cause some weakening and disruption to the circulation.  However, as mentioned before, the models suggest that a new center could form, and the environmental conditions would support gradual intensification.  
The intensity models have been trending higher, and the official  forecast is nudged upward accordingly, now showing a peak  intensity of 60 kt when the storm is near the coast of Florida and the Southeast U.S. Coast.  It should be noted that there are models that show hurricane strength near the U.S. but, given the large amount of uncertainty, it is preferred to stay on the conservative side for now. We should have a better idea of how strong Isaias will become near the U.S. after reconnaissance aircraft sample the storm and after it passes Hispaniola later today.
 
Isaias may very well stay off shore all the way up the east coast- or even fizzle out over the next 48 hours - but interests from South Florida to the mid-Atlantic states should carefully monitor its progress.  

As we've discussed often since mid-May (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different'), dealing with any sort of natural disaster in the midst of a pandemic immediately becomes more difficult.   
 
And it works both ways - hurricanes can impede the ability to deal with our pandemic - as illustrated by this press release issued late yesterday by the Florida Division of Emergency Management, which announces the temporary closure of State Run COVID-19 testing sites, starting today at 5pm. 

Today, the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) announced that all state-supported drive-thru and walk-up COVID-19 testing sites will temporarily close at 5 p.m. on Thursday, July 30, in anticipation of impacts from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

Testing sites are closing out of an abundance of caution to keep individuals operating and attending the sites safe. All sites have free standing structures including tents and other equipment, which cannot withstand tropical storm force winds, and could cause damage to people and property if not secured.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to impact Florida with heavy rains and strong winds arriving to South Florida as early as Friday. The sites will remain closed until they are safe to reopen, with all sites anticipated to be reopened at the latest by 8 a.m., Wednesday, August 5. 
 

This interruption in testing comes as Florida announced 9,446 new cases and their highest one-day COVID death toll (n=216) yesterday. Given we are only 1/3rd of the way through the Atlantic Hurricane season - and Aug-Sept-Oct are historically the busiest months - this will likely not be Florida's last tropical threat of 2020.  

Regardless of what Isaias does over the next few days, this year - perhaps more than ever before - people who live in `hurricane country' need to make their hurricane plan, and acquire any needed disaster supplies, well in the advance of any approaching storm.

While store shelves are reasonably well-stocked again, the inevitable last-minute surge of people going out and queuing up to buy hurricane supplies greatly increases the risks of disease transmission. So too would the reliance on going to a community emergency shelter during a storm. 
While some people may find themselves with no better options, those that can make other arrangements should do so. This is one of the big reasons why I promote the idea of having, and being, a `Disaster Buddy'. 
The CDC offers the following advice if you must evacuate due to a hurricane while COVID-19 continues to circulate. 


Emergency managers, shelter managers, and public health professionals are taking measures to reduce the possible spread of COVID-19 among people who seek safety in a disaster shelter during severe weather events.

Here are some tips to help you prepare and lower the risk of infection while staying safe in a shelter.
Prepare to shelter
  • If you may need to evacuate, prepare a “go kit” with
  • Know a safe place to shelter and have several ways to receive weather alerts, such as National Weather Service
  • Find out if your local public shelter is open, in case you need to evacuate your home and go there. Your shelter location may be different this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Follow guidance from your local public health or emergency management officials on when and where to shelter.
  • Make a plan and prepare a disaster kit for your pets. Find out if your disaster shelter will accept pets. Typically, when shelters accommodate pets, the pets are housed in a separate area from people.
  • Follow safety precautions when using transportation to evacuate. If you have to travel away from your community to evacuate, follow safety precautions for travelers to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.
Protect yourself and others while in a public shelte
  • Practice social distancing. Stay at least 6 feet from other people outside of your household.
  • Follow CDC COVID-19 preventive actions—wash your hands often, cover coughs and sneezes, and follow shelter policies for wearing cloth face coverings. Avoid sharing food and drink with anyone if possible.
  • Follow disaster shelter policies and procedures designed to protect everyone in the shelter, especially those who are at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19, including
  • Avoid touching high-touch surfaces, such as handrails, as much as possible.
  • Keep your living area in the shelter
  • If you feel sick when you arrive at the shelter or start to feel sick while sheltering, tell shelter staff immediately.
 
You'll find even more advice from the CDC at Hurricanes and COVID-19

While all of this advice is hurricane centric, much of it would apply to any other natural disaster (wildfires, floods, earthquakes, etc.) that has the potential to force evacuations. 

It is also worth noting that any emergency relief response may be hampered by our ongoing pandemic as well.  It may take longer to get the power restored, or see store shelves restocked, than after previous storms.  

All reasons why, if you aren't already prepared for a disaster - and able to deal with a potentially prolonged recovery - now is the time to act.   You need to ask yourself . . . . 
  • Do you have an emergency plan and a first aid kit? 
  • Is your pantry lean, or can you and your family get by
  • Do you have at least a week's worth of potable water stored?  
  • Can you stay cool in the summer, and warm in the winter, and cook if the power is out for days or weeks?  
  • Do you have battery operated lights, radio & cell phone charger?
  • Do you have a disaster buddy? 
If not, you've got some work to do. 
Posted by at