Avian Flu Diary: July Tropical Climatology

Mariner’s Poem On Hurricanes

June too soon.
July stand by.
August look out you must.
September remember.
October all over.
- Published in “Weather Lore” by R. Inwards in 1898

#15,342

As the poem above suggests, the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't usually get going until August, but this year we've already seen 4 named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly) - all tropical storms - which formed between mid-May and late June.

On average, we don't normally see our first named Atlantic storm until July 9th and our first hurricane until mid-August (see chart below) - so going into July we find ourselves well ahead of the curve.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

While it is impossible to predict how active the next 30 days will be, in May NOAA issued their initial 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, calling for a Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As we discussed a few weeks ago, in Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different', our concurrent COVID-19 pandemic will complicate nearly every aspect of hurricane season, including evacuations, staying in shelters, and the time it will take to restore utilities and provide disaster relief after the storm.

While the exact number and location of tropical storms is impossible to predict, we do know that as summer progresses the waters of the Atlantic continue to get warmer, storms tend to form further out to sea, and those have a better chance of becoming long track, major storms.

As the graphic above illustrates, July tropical systems tend to form in the Eastern Caribbean, The Gulf of Mexico, or off the Southeastern Atlantic coastline of the United States. While not usually as powerful as the storms of Aug-Sep-Oct., their close proximity to land can cut down the amount of warning time.

You can find much more on Hurricane Climatology at NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.

As we've discussed so often in the past you don't have to live right on the coast to be affected by a land falling hurricane. High winds, inland flooding, and tornadoes can occur hundreds of miles inland.

From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information

So, if you haven't already done so, plan a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes you may wish to revisit: