Avian Flu Diary: NHC: 70% Chance Of A Named Storm Off Mid-Atlantic Coast Over Next Few Days

#15,352

Our extraordinarily busy 2020 Atlantic Tropical season has yielded 5 named storms so far, but none have reached hurricane strength. This morning, the National Hurricane Center has their eye on what is likely to become the 6th named story (Fay) of 2020, riding along the South Carolina coastline.

It too is likely to top out as a tropical storm, but it can still produce significant impacts, including inland flooding and beach erosion.

From this morning's Atlantic Tropical Outlook:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the low is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Brown

While the 5 storms this year have all been moderate in strength, this is the fastest start on record. On average, we don't normally see our first named Atlantic storm until July 9th and our first hurricane until mid-August (see chart below) - so going into the second week of July we find ourselves well ahead of the curve.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

While it is impossible to predict how active the next three months will be, in May NOAA issued their initial 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, calling for a Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Bigger storms - including several major (CAT 3+) hurricanes - are fully expected as we get into August and September, and those who live in hurricane country should be preparing now for an active season.

As we've discussed often the past couple of months (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different'), our concurrent COVID-19 pandemic will complicate nearly every aspect of hurricane season, including evacuations, staying in shelters, and the time it will take to restore utilities and provide disaster relief after the storm.

While I don't expect proto-Fay to amount to much, storms that form near the coast can sometimes catch people off guard, and every once in awhile strengthen rapidly. Anyone living along the Eastern Seaboard should monitor the progress of this system.

So, if you haven't already done so, plan a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2020 Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

While AFD, along with many other internet sources (I recommend Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season, your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes you may wish to revisit: