Avian Flu Diary: A Double Whammy For The Gulf Coast

Credit NWS New Orleans

#15,429

Unless things change radically over the next 24-48 hours, the northern Gulf Coast will see two tropical threats this week, with the first, and likely least impactful - being Marco - expected on Monday (see above).

At 5am EST, Marco was still a tropical storm (70mph), but is expected to intensify to a CAT 1 hurricane prior to landfall. Marco faces some unfavorable wind shear, which should help limit intensification. This from today's NHC 5am discussion:

The intensity forecast remains tricky with Marco due to its small size and marginal environment. There are some models that briefly relax the shear today, which will likely be enough of a change to allow Marco to reach hurricane strength. Later on, while the cyclone is near the coast of Louisiana, the shear is forecast to increase, but it is unknown exactly how close to landfall this will occur. Our best forecast at this time is that the strongest winds will be confined to the coast, and that Marco will then weaken faster than most hurricanes do over the swamps of Louisiana due to the shear.

Key Messages this morning on Marco from the NHC are:

Even a CAT 1 hurricane (or tropical storm) can pose significant hazards to life and property, and so those in the path of Marco should be making preparations, and following the advice of local Emergency Management.

But the bigger threat is likely to come from Laura on Wednesday into Thursday.

Although currently tangled up as a tropical storm over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, Laura is expected to emerge off Western Cuba late Monday night and then make a run at the northern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.

And this time conditions are ripe for intensification.

The 5am forecast discussion has Laura as a CAT 2 hurricane, approaching the northern Gulf Coast, on Wednesday. But once again, forecasting the intensity and exact track of this storm is tricky 4 days out, and so the path and intensity are subject to change.

This is the updated position and wind forecast from the 5am NHC Discussion.

While the models currently have Louisiana in the crosshairs for Laura, anyone along the northern gulf coast - from Alabama to Texas, should be monitoring this storm closely.

The fact that we are on our 13th named storm, and it isn't even September yet, should serve notice that this year's hurricane season may produce a record number of storms. Those who live in hurricane country - and haven't already prepared - should begin now.

I'll be running some specific hurricane preparedness blogs over the next couple of days, but to get you started, my May 2020 series on Hurricane prep.