#15,428
Two days ago, in That Uncertain Feeling (Tropical Edition), we looked at two pro-threats brewing in or approaching the Caribbean, discussed the decided lack of consensus among the major global and hurricane forecast models (GFS, EURO, CMC, etc.).
Some major models showed these systems dissipating, while others suggested one (or both) could become hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico.
As of late last night, both systems have reached tropical storm intensity, and at least one (Laura) is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days as it heads towards the northern gulf coast.
Once again, however, there is considerable divergence among the models as to just how strong it will be 4 or 5 days from now when approaches landfall.
T.S.Marco is currently forecasted to stay a tropical storm until landfall - probably in Texas - 4 days from now, although intensity forecasts are always subject to change.
For now, residents from the panhandle of Florida to Southern Texas need to monitor these two storms, and make preparations for their arrival.
Key messages from the National Hurricane center this morning on both storms follow:
And lastly, a word about credible hurricane sources on the Internet.
First and foremost, your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.But there are other reputable sites, run by very knowledgeable people, that I rely on. I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page, and can recommend both for their sensible and sane analysis.
There are others, of course, but there are also a great many `click bait' sites, that indulge in `fantasy hurricane forecasts' and pseudo-scientific speculation. Many of these sites look professional, and have impressive names, but are unreliable at best.
As always, Caveat Lector.
