Thursday, August 06, 2020

CSU Updated (August) Hurricane Forecast


Atlantic Development Areas - Aug & Sept -Credit NOAA


#15,401

Although long-range forecasting of tropical or hurricane activity is far from precise, it's come a long way in the past few years.  Improved weather satellites, better models, and faster computers have all enhanced the ability to forecast - with reasonable accuracy - the likelihood of near term (60-90 days) tropical development. 

Last April and May we looked at a procession of early season forecast models released by forecasters at Colorado State University, Pennsylvania State University ESSC, the Weather Channel, and the experts at University College London Tropical Storm Risk center all calling for a particularly active Atlantic Hurricane season.

In mid-May, NOAA released their outlook, calling for a Busy 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Just two months into the 6-month Atlantic Hurricane season, we've already seen 9 named storms, two of which became hurricanes. With the peak of hurricane activity expected during August, September and October, even those aggressive forecasts are beginning to look like underestimates. 
Yesterday, Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project released their August update, which ups their ante on seeing an even more active tropical season than previously predicted, increasing their June forecast from 19 named storms to 24.
From the CSU press release:

We have increased our forecast and now call for an extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, and vertical wind shear is well below average. Current cool neutral ENSO conditions may transition to weak La Niña conditions by later this summer. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

Although these forecasts can't tell us where hurricanes will strike this year, it only takes one serious storm in a highly populated area to cause a major disaster. And while it is possible that we'll avoid a major (CAT 3+) landfalling hurricane over the next 2 or 3 months, we'd have to get very lucky indeed. 

Whether you live in the Caribbean, or within a few hundred miles of the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic coast, you need to be taking this forecast seriously. 

It predicts more 15 named storms in as many weeks, with 10 of them becoming hurricanes, and 5 becoming major (CAT 3+) storms.  That's a lot of activity to cram into the next 3 (or possibly 4) months. 

And all of this will come as we deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, making both situations worse. 
 
As we've discussed often since mid-May (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different'), preparing for - or dealing with - any sort of natural disaster in the midst of a pandemic immediately becomes problematic. 

I would strongly urge anyone who could possibly be impacted by these storms to begin to plan and prepare today, and not wait until a threat looms on the horizon. By then, you may find store shelves emptied, and your options limited. 

 
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