Avian Flu Diary: NHC: T.S Isaias Expected To Regain Hurricane Strength

#15,397

Florida was largely spared this weekend as wind shear weakened Tropical Storm Isaias stayed off the east coast, keeping the `dirty' side of the storm well out to sea.

Although only expected to become a minimal hurricane before landfall, the NE quadrant of the storm will come into play when it makes landfall along the Carolina coast in about 18 to 20 hours.

While unlikely to be a big wind maker, Isaias could produce life-threatening surge along the Carolina coastline, particularly north of where the center crosses. Small tornadoes are possible, along with inland flooding due to heavy rain, as the storm treks north along the eastern seaboard (see 5am Key Messages)

People tend to dismiss the impact of tropical storms, and minor hurricanes, believing their low wind speeds render them fairly benign. But few realize that over a 3 decade period (1970-2000), the the leading cause of death in the United States from hurricanes was due to fresh water flooding.

By the end of the first 2 months of the Atlantic Hurricane season, there have already been 9 Tropical storms (2 becoming hurricanes). Although the impact on land has been minimal (so far), more than 2 dozen deaths (mostly in Mexico) and nearly $2 billion dollars in damage have been reported.

But historically, the heart of hurricane season doesn't really begin until the middle of August - peaking around September 10th - and running to late October. Hurricane season doesn't officially end until the last day of November.

While early season storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean (see July Tropical Climatology), as ocean temperatures rise late in summer, and winds aloft become more favorable, hurricanes tend to form farther to the east, giving them more time grow before encountering land (see below).

Although September is regarded as the peak of the season, August has a history of producing some very large, and infamous, storms including Harvey (2017), Katrina (2005), Charley (2004), Andrew (1992), and Camille in 1969. Hurricane Donna (1960) - the first storm I can personally remember - formed in August but wasn't upgraded to a hurricane until Sept 1st.

You can find much more on Hurricane Climatology at NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Climatology page.

With the forecast calling for an active season ahead and a concurrent pandemic to complicate matters, this year - perhaps more than any other - it is important to be prepared before the next storm threatens (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different').

You'll find some excellent internet hurricane resources online (along with some very sketchy ones), but the two I heartily recommend are Mark Sudduth's excellent YouTube channel and http://hurricanetrack.com/ - and for true weather nerds like me - Mike's Weather page is a daily stop.

But your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

To help you get ready, below is a list of this year's hurricane preparedness blogs: