Avian Flu Diary: That Uncertain Feeling (Tropical Edition)

#15,425

Today - August 20th - marks the historic start of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season - which typically lasts about 60 days. By the third week of August, we would normally have seen 4 named systems (1 hurricane, 3 tropical storms), but in this record-breaking year we've already seen 11 named storms (2 hurricanes).

As the above graphic illustrates , the eastern Atlantic - where the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes tend to form - is `waking up', and we are on pace to a potential record number of named storms this year. It typically takes between 10 and 14 days from the time a tropical wave exits west Africa, to the time it threatens CONUS (Continental United States).

Right now, there are two systems of immediate concern, although the models are heavily divided on where they will go, or how strong they will be.

The closest threat to land is an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean, which is expected to become a depression later today.

The second is currently a tropical depression (#13), approaching the Northern Leeward Islands, with a possible eye on Florida early next week. This morning's key messages from the NHC read:

While modern hurricane forecasting has become much more reliable over the past 20 years, it is difficult for computer models to get a good handle on a storm's future track and intensity until it has formed a robust closed center of circulation.

In other words, has become a tropical storm or hurricane.

So the future paths and strength of these two tropical intruders are still murky. The models are not in good agreement, and it may be 2 or 3 days before we have a decent idea of where they are going and how strong they might be when they get there.

Their future intensity will depend in large part on how much interaction these systems will have with land (Yucatan for the western most system, the Greater Antilles for T.D. #13), but both will have very warm waters to feed on along the way.

Whatever their fate, these two are just the advance guard of what will likely become a weekly onslaught of tropical threats over the next couple of months. Some of these systems will fizzle, or turn out to sea, but others may end up posing a serious threat to residents of the Caribbean and to the United States.

This weekend may be the last, best chance for residents along the Gulf Coast, in Florida, or along the eastern seaboard to prepare for this year's hurricane season.

As we've discussed repeatedly since mid-May (see Why Preparing For This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be `Different'), preparing for - or dealing with - any sort of natural disaster in the midst of our COVID-19 pandemic will be much more difficult.

You don't have to live right on the coast to be affected by a land falling hurricane, but the highest risk areas are those in the shaded regions in the map below. However, high winds, inland flooding, and tornadoes can occur even hundreds of miles farther inland.

From Escambia County Hurricane Preparedness Information

So, if you haven't already done so, plan a visit to NOAA's Weather-Ready Nation 2019's Hurricane Preparedness week web page, and decide what you need to do now to keep you, your family, and your property safe during the coming tropical season.

While this blog, and many other internet sources (I follow Mark Sudduth's Hurricane Track, and Mike's Weather page), will cover this year's hurricane season. your primary source of forecast information should always be the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

These are the real experts, and the only ones you should rely on to track and forecast the storm.

If you are on Twitter, you should also follow @FEMA, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific and @ReadyGov and of course take direction from your local Emergency Management Office.

For some recent blogs on preparing for hurricanes you may wish to revisit: