NHC Key Messages On Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Delta

 

#15,489

Just forty-eight hours ago, in NHC Watching Caribbean & October Tropical Climatology, the disturbance we were following as it entered the southwestern Caribbean wasn't even a depression, but this morning it is already a very healthy looking CAT 2 hurricane with its course set for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. 

There are still a number of unknowns at this point, including how much interaction the storm will have with the Yucatan, and how much weakening may occur as the storm moves out of the steamy waters of the Caribbean into the (still warm) waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

But as of right now, it looks as if the central gulf coast is in line for their 6th tropical encounter of this extraordinary 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season (previous storms: Cristobal, Laura, Marco, Sally, Beta) - and depending on how things play out over the next 3 days - Delta could bring substantial impacts. 

The Key Messages from the 5am NHC Advisory:

Delta is expected to continue to intensify - to CAT 3 (or higher) over the next 3 days -  but is forecast to lose some of its punch before reaching the Northern Gulf coast.   How much?   

Well, that's the $64 question, as intensity forecasting remains the most challenging and least dependable aspect of hurricane forecasting. 

Regardless of its ultimate strength, residents  - first in Cozumel and the Yucatan, and later this week in the central gulf coast - should be preparing for the arrival of a significant hurricane.  

This from the 5 am Discussion from the NHC:

Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is a significant risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS 

INIT 06/0900Z 17.5N 81.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 

12H 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 

24H 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 

36H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 

48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W 110 KT 125 MPH

60H 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 

72H 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 

96H 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 

INLAND 120H 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...

POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ 

Forecaster Blake