#15,445
The practical differences between in impact between a high-end tropical storm and a CAT 1 hurricane are pretty small, but T.S. Eta is now forecast to be hurricane when it pummels the Florida Keys on Monday. At 10 am today, the NHC issued a Hurricane warning for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.
A hurricane watch is now in effect from from Deerfield Beach Florida's east coast to Bonita Beach on the west coast. Further watches and warnings may be issued in the next few days.
As we discussed earlier today, Eta is likely to pose a threat to Gulf Coast residents at least through the end of the week. From the NHC's 10 am advisory.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located just north of central Cuba near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 79.2 West.
Eta is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn by this evening, and a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.
Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
While not expected to become a major hurricane, tropical force winds and hurricane gusts - along with heavy rains - can bring down trees and power lines. Prolonged onshore winds can produce flood tides. And inland flooding can inundate low lying areas.
As always, the advantage goes to those who are prepared.
