#15,654
In March of 2009, one month before the H1N1 swine flu pandemic virus would make its first appearance, I wrote a blog entitled How The Next Pandemic Will Arrive, that featured a 1-minute YouTube video (see below) of international air traffic over a 24 hour period.
The video above was made by ZHAW (Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften) or The Zurich University of Applied Sciences.
Even though international air travel has been greatly depressed for months due to the pandemic, it remains the virus's best route to spread new variants internationally.
On Monday, in response to last week's news that a new, potentially more transmissible COVID variant was spreading in the UK, many nations began banning or limiting travel to and from that region (see Canada, India & Italy Join Growing List Of Countries Banning Travel To/From The UK).
Already, we are seeing reports of this variant virus showing up in other countries, with Hong Kong, Italy, Singapore, Denmark, The Netherlands, and Australia all reporting cases. At the same time, another variant - first reported in South Africa has - recently been detected in the UK, and has also likely seeded into other countries.
International air travel is a very efficient vector for viruses. By the time we know that a new viral threat is upon us, it has likely already spread widely. Still, there are natural desires to close the barn door, even after the horse has gotten away.
Doing so won't stop the virus, but it is hoped it might slow its spread.
On tuesday, in CDC: Implications of the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variant VUI 202012/01, the CDC suggested that it was possible the UK variant was already in the United States, but our limited sequencing of virus samples (roughly 1 in 300) had yet to pick it up.
Late yesterday the CDC announced that rather imposing a complete halt to travel from the UK as many other countries have, they would require a recent (within 3 days) negative COVID-19 test for each traveler.
CDC to Require Negative COVID-19 Test from Air Travelers from the from the United Kingdom
Media Statement
For Immediate Release: Thursday, December 24, 2020
Contact: Media Relations
(404) 639-3286
Today, President Trump is taking another step to protect the health of the American people by requiring air passengers arriving from the United Kingdom (U.K.) to test negative, via PCR or Antigen test, no more than 72 hours before departure from the U.K. to the United States.
The public health authorities in the United Kingdom recently announced the discovery of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2. Viruses constantly change through mutation, and preliminary analysis in the U.K. suggests that this new variant may be up to 70% more transmissible than previously circulating variants.
On March 14, President Trump issued a Presidential Proclamation to suspend the entry of foreign nationals who visited the United Kingdom in the past 14 days. This has reduced air travel to the U.S. from the U.K. by about 90%. This additional testing requirement will fortify our protection of the American public to improve their health and safety and ensure responsible international travel. The order is consistent with existing CDC testing guidance and U.S.
Department of Transportation / Federal Aviation Administration guidance in the “Roadway to Recovery” document.
This new order is consistent with the measures that have been taken so far to increase our ability to detect and contain COVID-19 proactively and aggressively.
Passengers are required to get a viral test (i.e., a test for current infection) within the 3 days before their flight from the U.K. to the U.S. departs, and provide written documentation of their laboratory test result (in hard copy or electronic) to the airline. Airlines must confirm the negative test result for all passengers before they board. If a passenger chooses not to take a test, the airline must deny boarding to the passenger.This order will be signed tomorrow, December 25, and become effective on December 28, 2020.
While obviously a more `porous' solution than a complete travel ban, the reality is, if the UK variant isn't already here, it has probably already established beachheads in a dozen or more other countries, and could always arrive via a more circuitous route.
It would just probably take longer.
Meanwhile, other variants - from South Africa, or Nigeria, and undoubtedly others places yet to be identified - are lining up in the batter's box. And with the largest number of COVID cases in the world, there's nothing that says the United States can't generate its own homegrown variant(s).
While new variants aren't necessarily any worse than existing strains - and can even be less dangerous - they have the potential to be disruptive. It can take weeks or months to properly assess their likely impact, and by that time, they may have spread widely.
All of which means we are probably going to be dealing with one game of COVID `whack-a-mole' after another in 2021, as new variants emerge around the world. While attempts will undoubtedly be made to contain these variants, history has shown that such efforts rarely work for very long.
