CDC Reports 52 COVID B.1.1.7 Variant Virus Detections Across 5 U.S. States

Credit CDC 

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Nine days ago, in Colorado Governor Statement On The 1st Detection Of The COVID B.1.1.7 Variant In U.S., we saw the first official confirmation of what was pretty much a foregone conclusion; the B.1.1.7 COVID variant now ravaging the UK was already in the United States.

International travel, even when greatly subdued as it is by the current pandemic, is a highly efficient way to spread viruses (see my 2009 blog How The Next Pandemic Will Arrive).

The reality of life in this highly mobile 21st century is that disease threats that once were local, can now spread globally in a matter of hours or days. Vast oceans and prolonged travel times no longer protect us against infected travelers crossing borders.

Border closings and travel bans - if implement early enough - may help slow the spread of an infectious disease, but given porous borders and asymptomatic carriers, are unlikely to work for very long. 

Even in 1918 - when oceans took days or even weeks to cross - the pandemic virus managed to invade all but a handful of island nations in a matter of months (see Can Island Nations Effectively Quarantine Against Pandemic Flu?).

Over the past week we've seen a handful of additional COVID Variant cases confirmed by a few states, but late yesterday the CDC posted the following interactive map (to be updated twice weekly), showing that 52 cases have now been identified. 

California               26

Florida                   22

         Colorado                 2      

New York                1

Georgia                   1

 

These numbers are undoubtedly major undercounts, as genomic sequencing is only done for about 1 in every 330 positive cases in the United States right now. Meaning the real number likely already runs into the thousands. 

The CDC's newly released interactive map (below) will be updated twice a week (Tues & Thurs). 

US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants

Updated Jan. 6, 2021

*The cases identified above are based on a sampling of SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens and do not represent the total number of B.1.1.7 lineage cases that may be circulating in the United States and may not match numbers reported by states, territories, tribes, and local officials.

†Numbers will be updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays by noon.

Assuming early reports (see MRC Report #42: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England) are reasonably accurate, we can expect the number of B.1.1.7 variant cases to steadily rise here in the weeks and months to come, with it eventually becoming the dominant strain. 

Unless, of course, another - even more transmissible variant - should arise somewhere in the world.

The good news is, so far there is no evidence this B.1.1.7 variant produces more severe illness, or that it will evade the vaccine.  But even so, unless we work to reduce its spread, its increased transmissibility poses a significant threat of overwhelming our healthcare delivery systems.