CDC: Updated B.1.1.7 COVID Variants In The United States (n=122)

 

Interactive map : 21 states reporting 122 cases

#15,724

Three weeks ago today (Dec 29th) Colorado's governor announced the 1st detection of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 COVID variant - which began raising alarm bells in the UK in mid-December - here in the United States.

Since then, this B.1.1.7 variant has been detected in more than 50 countries, and while surveillance in the United States remains severely limited - 21 states have now reported the variant. 

These case counts are believed to massively under represent the true incidence of the variant across the nation, and while it is plausible that Florida (n=46) and California (n=40) lead the nation, a lot depends on how aggressively each state is testing for the variant.  

Last Friday, in MMWR: Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021, we looked at forecasts that B.1.1.7 could become dominant in the United States by March, and warnings that this B.1.1.7 variant warrants universal and increased compliance with mitigation strategies, including distancing and masking if we are to avoid seeing our healthcare systems overwhelmed.

Currently surveillance is focused primarily on the B.1.1.7 variant, but it is not the only new variant on the horizon. Last week, the CDC listed the 3 emerging variants of greatest concern as:

• In the United Kingdom (UK), a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 (known as 20I/501Y.V1, VOC 202012/01, or B.1.1.7) emerged with an unusually large number of mutations. This variant has since been detected in numerous countries around the world, including the United States (US) and Canada.
• In South Africa, another variant of SARS-CoV-2 (known as 20H/501Y.V2 or B.1.351) emerged independently of B.1.1.7. This variant shares some mutations with B.1.1.7. Cases attributed to this variant have been detected outside of South Africa.
• In Brazil, a variant of SARS-CoV-2 (known as P.1) emerged and was identified in four travelers from Brazil, who were tested during routine screening at Haneda airport outside Tokyo, Japan. This variant has 17 unique mutations, including three in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein.

And just over 24 hours ago, California put yet another variant on our watchlist (see California DPH Statement On L452R Variant Linked To Several Large COVID Outbreaks). Information on this latest variant threat remains limited, and it will take some time to determine how much of an additional threat - if any - this new variant poses. 

The emergence of variants like these - and undoubtedly more to come - is to be expected.  Viruses evolve in order to survive.  SARS-COV-2 is no different.  Most variants will prove less than competitive, and will fall by the wayside.  Only a few will thrive. 

Whether any of these variants represent a true game changer remains to be seen.  Several appear to be significantly more transmissible - which is a genuine concern. And a couple have been linked to reduced antibody recognition, which might reduce vaccine effectiveness or increase reinfection rates - but the jury is still out on that. 

Either way, COVID doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon.