#15,678
It's been 9 days since the last major update from Denmark's SSI (see Updated Risk Assessment On UK Variant Virus) - and surveillance and reporting tends to suffers over the Christmas-New Year's holiday - but today they've published a new report on the UK variant virus which was first reported in Denmark in mid-December.
The percentage of variants detected by the SSI - while still low - continues to rise, and while only 86 cases have been identified, this is based on genomic sequencing of only 11% of samples. The actual case count is expected to be 9 times higher.
Rigorous lockdowns and restrictions have been in place in Denmark since mid-December (see Denmark Orders Christmas Lockdown Over COVID - SSI Update On UK Strain), and the concern is these variant cases may surge after the lockdowns are eased.
The full 8-page report (in Danish) is available HERE.
The (translated) summary from the SSI follows.
New status of the occurrence of cluster B.1.1.7 in Denmark
The Statens Serum Institut has today published a report showing that SARS-CoV-2 cluster B.1.1.7., Also called the English virus variant, is still spreading in Denmark.
Last edited January 2, 2021
The English virus variant SARS-CoV-2 cluster B.1.1.7 is still spreading in Denmark. It shows a new report that the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) has sent out today.
This virus variant is estimated in the UK to be 50-74% more contagious than the already known virus variants. Therefore, the highest level of restrictions has been introduced in England from 20 December 2020 in several areas of the country.
Also in Ireland, a hard shutdown was carried out on 30 December 2020 due to rising infection. Here, the figures show that the new variant accounts for 18% of all detected cases.
86 cases in Denmark
86 cases of this virus variant have now been detected in Denmark. It thus constitutes 0.8% of the approx. 10,300 sequenced samples in the period from week 47 to week 52.
The proportion of cases detected is increasing, however, and in week 52 cluster B.1.1.7. 2.3% of all the sequenced samples.
There is great geographical variation in the spread. In week 52, the variant thus accounted for approximately 7.1% of sequenced samples in Region North Jutland, 5.2% of the sequenced samples in Region Zealand, 2.3% of the sequenced samples in Region Central Jutland, and 1% and less of the sequenced samples in The Capital Region of Denmark and the Region of Southern Denmark.
Since SSI has sequenced only 11% of the positive samples, it is expected that the actual number of people infected with this variant will be approximately nine times higher.
Proven in many other places in Europe
The new virus variant has been detected in a large number of other European countries. This applies, for example, to Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
In most of the countries, the variant has primarily been found among travelers from the UK, which is probably due to the fact that the testing and analyzes have been focused on this group of travelers. It is likely that there is also societal infection with the English variant in other countries, but it is detected especially in countries with high capacity for whole genome sequencing.
“Spreading with a more contagious virus variant can lead to a steeper epidemic curve with a higher peak. The new virus will probably continue to spread, and it will mean that we must strengthen our infection prevention measures or maintain them for a longer period of time to keep the epidemic under control ", says chief physician and acting professional director Tyra Grove Krause at SSI.
Follows developments closely
In the latest risk assessment from the ECDC, the organization calls for increased sequencing in Europe in general.
"We are one of the countries that sequences the most samples. Therefore, we can follow the development closely, but we are also working on setting up a new PCR test that can specifically detect one of the special changes that this virus has, so we can follow the development among all positive samples close to real time "says Tyra Grove Krause. She continues:
“In addition, our expert group in mathematical modeling is in full swing calculating how this virus variant can spread depending on what restrictions we have in society. And depending on how many we can vaccinate ", says Tyra Grove Krause.
Difficult to follow right now
It is a bit difficult to follow the epidemic these days as there has been a very varying test pattern over Christmas and New Year. However, the number of new admissions appears to be stagnating.
"Fortunately, Denmark is virtually closed down now. We hope it also reduces the spread of infection with this virus, but over time it will outcompete the other viruses we have in circulation because it is more contagious. This can mean that the infection flares up quickly when restrictions are lifted, ”says Tyra Grove Krause.
