CDC Infographic
#15,677
Nearly 10 months ago, in The Most Predicted Global Crisis of the 21st Century, we looked at nearly 2 decades of (mostly unheeded) warnings from experts around the globe that another severe pandemic was all but `inevitable' (see WHO: On The Inevitability Of The Next Pandemic).Number one on their hit parade?
Global Trends 2030's potential Black Swans
1. Severe Pandemic
"No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur," the report says. "Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months."Of course, when it finally arrived, politicians and pundits were quick to say `No one could have predicted it would be this bad . . . . '.
Except, of course, they had. Over and over again.
- Fifteen years ago Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, priescently likened a severe pandemic to an 18-month global blizzard, where nearly everything is shut down. Many will find themselves without a paycheck, either due to their refusal to work and risk exposure, or because their jobs are simply no longer available (see Baby, it's Cold Outside).
- We've known our supply of PPEs, particularly N95 and surgical masks, would become exhausted in a matter of weeks (see here, here, and here) during a pandemic, yet we allowed our stockpiles to dwindle, and let nearly all of the manufacturing of such items move to Asia.
- Global supply chains would obviously be severely taxed by any pandemic (see 2018's Supply Chain Of Fools (Revisited) and 2008's Supply Chain Of Fools), causing shortages of consumer goods, economic pain, and impairing our ability to deal with disease.
- And our public health infrastructure has been allowed to whither for lack of funding, making it that much harder to provide emergency care, and deliver a vaccine, during the pandemic (see Ain’t We Got Fund?).
And that assumes the vaccine is all we hope it is, and the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn't have more tricks (i.e. vaccine escape variants) up its sleeve.
And it also assumes we aren't blindsided again by another emerging pathogen. Nature's laboratory is open 24/7, and there is nothing to say another threat can't emerge tomorrow. A few of the many contenders in the wild include:
Another pandemic - while inevitable - isn't necessarily on the immediate horizon. We may get lucky, and it may be years before we are tested like this again. But of course, that's the sort of thinking that left us unprepared for this pandemic.
But there are more threats out there beyond another pandemic. There's a global economy which is severely damaged, massive debt, rising food insecurity around the world, and geopolitical tensions on the rise.
Recovery from this pandemic, for many, may be slow.
And then there are natural disasters, which will continue regardless of where we are in the pandemic. Although 2020 was a record year for hurricanes, we got lucky in that relatively few struck populated areas.
Next season may not be so kind.
Seismologists tell us much of the world has been in an earthquake (and major volcanic eruption) drought for decades (see Southern California: Shaken and Hopefully Stirred To Action), and that a devastating quake in a mega-city is all but inevitable (see Dr. Lucy Jones: `Imagine America Without Los Angeles’).
Our national infrastructure (power grid, water supplies, bridges, tunnels, etc.) is ageing and in disrepair (see ASCE report card on America’s infrastructure), and there are bad actors capable of wreaking havoc with cyber or other attacks on our power grid, water, supply, and communications systems.
In December of 2018, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a NIAC (National Infrastructure Advisory Council) 94-page report that examined the United State's current ability (or lack, thereof) to respond to and recover from a widespread catastrophic power outage.
What is a catastrophic power outage?
• Events beyond modern experience that exhaust or exceed mutual aid capabilities
• Likely to be no-notice or limited-notice events that could be complicated by a cyber-physical attack
• Long duration, lasting several weeks to months due to physical infrastructure damage
• Affects a broad geographic area, covering multiple states or regions and affecting tens of millions of people
• Causes severe cascading impacts that force critical sectors—drinking water and wastewater systems, communications, transportation, healthcare, and financial services—to operate in a degraded state
In 2015, well known journalist Ted Koppel published a book called Lights Out: A Cyberattack, A Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath, that explored our vulnerability to a deliberate cyber attack.
Perhaps the most worrisome is a `Carrington-class' Solar storm.According to NASA, we actually came very close to seeing it happen in 2012 (see NASA: The Solar Super Storm Of 2012). You'll find a report, and a 4 minute video from NASA explaining earth's close call below, then I'll return with more.
Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012Such events were once thought to occur only once every few hundred years,but scientists have discovered that these severe solar storms happen far more often (See Destructive Solar Storms Usually Hit Earth Every 25 Years or So, Say Scientists).
While we are understandably focused on dealing with COVID-19 right now, we can't afford to wait until this pandemic has passed, and our economy has recovered, before we prepare for the next crisis.
And since we can't know exactly what threats we will face, we need to work on improving individual, family, community, and governmental All Hazards preparedness.
My hope is that in 2021 we can promote a newfound culture of preparedness - not only in this country - but around the world.If we don't, we run the very real risk of being caught flat footed once again, and the next time could be substantially worse than what we are dealing with today.
- A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
- A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
- Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
- A way to provide light when the grid is down.
- A way to cook safely without electricity
- A way to purify or filter water
- A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
- A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
- An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
- Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
- A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout
If your answer is `no’, you have some work to do. A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov.
And for some of my past preparedness blogs, you may wish to revisit:
