Friday, February 05, 2021

CDC Updated COVID Variant Map


Mutation of SARS-CoV2 - current variants of concern  - ECDC   

#15,787


The CDC updated their COVID Variant interactive map overnight, and while limited testing ensures these are massive undercounts, the steady increase in detections tells us the B.1.1.7 variant - in particularly - is alive and thriving in the United States. 

As noted on Tuesday, while some states (like Washington & Oregon) are aggressive testing for variants, others are only checking fewer than 1 in 1,000 positive cases.

I'm still seeing a lot of local media coverage stating that there is `no evidence that this variant is more lethal than the `wild type'', despite several studies in the UK suggesting otherwise  (see LSHTM Preprint: Increased Hazard of Death in Community-tested Cases of SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01).

While the recent reduction in COVID cases and hospitalizations in the United States and around the globe is a hopeful sign, the impact of these new, more transmisible variants is just beginning to be felt, and a spring resurgence is still a strong possibility. 

Modelers at the CDC estimate the B.1.1.7 variant could become dominant in the United States by March (see MMWR: Emergence Of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, Dec 29, 2020–Jan 12, 2021). 

So, take these latest numbers (618 cases across 33 states) with a large grain of salt.