Saturday, February 20, 2021

Denmark Statens Serum Institut: Covid-19 Variant B.1.525 in Denmark - (Feb 17th)


#15,820

There are literally thousands of SARS-CoV-2 variants around the world, and while most will end up temporary flashes in the pan - offering no `fitness' advantage to the virus - we've seen several that stand out due to increased transmissibility, increased virulence, or potentially reduced antibody recognition. 

Although our understanding of the impact of specific amino acid changes to the virus's genome is limited, scientists have identified some key amino acid substitutions that serve as red flags.

The 501Y mutation, for example, is linked to increased transmissibility while the E484K mutation is linked to reduced antibody recognition, which is feared could affect vaccine efficiency.  There are other mutations, of course, but they must work in concert with multiple changes to the SARS-CoV-2 genome that could either enhance, or negate, their impact. 

Which is why it isn't enough to simply identify a variant with these changes. Scientists must then observe these emerging variants to see what - if any - advantage they may have over other competing viruses.
 
Not all variants carrying these key mutations are destined to thrive. 

While the bulk of our attention has been focused on the B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 variants (see ECDC: Updated Rapid Risk Assessment On Increased Circulation Of COVID Variants of Concern (VOC)), scarcely a day goes by without our hearing of a new `worrying' variant detected somewhere in the world. 

This week, in addition to 91 cases of B.1.1.316 carrying E484K detected in Japan, and 7 newly identified U.S. lineages (clade 20G) all sharing an amino acid change at position 677 in the spike protein, the rapid rise of a B.1.525 variant has also been making headlines (see The UK Adds Another VUI To Their List).


Two days ago Norway's National Institute of Public Health (FHI) announced the detection of 22 cases (see New virus variant discovered in Norway). Today we have a report from Denmark's SSI, which describes the detection of 61 cases over the past month across three regions of their country. 
Covid-19 variant B.1.525 in Denmark - status on 17 February 2021
In the past month, 61 cases of B.1.525 have been found in Denmark. They are spread over three regions.
Last edited 19 February 2021
Among the variants that the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) pays special attention to, a new one has been added, which has been given the variant name B.1.525.

So far, it is perceived as a so-called Variant of Interest (VOI) and thus not as  Variant of Concern (VOC) such as B.1.1.7.
How widespread is B.1.525?

From 14 January 2021 to 12 February 2021, SSI has detected 61 cases of B.1.525 in Denmark.

The 61 cases are spread over three regions. 33 cases have been found in the Capital Region, 23 cases in the Region of Southern Denmark and 5 cases in Region Zealand.
Where does B.1.525 come from?

The Danish cases of B.1.525 are primarily concentrated on three clusters.
The one cluster from the Region of Southern Denmark that began with an incoming person to Denmark. From here, it spread to the person's family and to a case in a kindergarten.

The second cluster was also in the Region of Southern Denmark, where the primary case had not been traveling. Several people have been infected through the person's work, and through that, members of their families have been infected.

The third cluster is on Zealand, where the cases are concentrated on a group of children and their families.

In addition, eight cases of B.1.525 have been identified that are unrelated to any of the three clusters. Five of these cases are just like the first cluster in the Region of Southern Denmark associated with travel.
What do we know about B.1.525?

The B.1.525 variant has, among other things, the mutation E484K. This mutation, also found in the B.1.351 variant, results in decreased susceptibility to antibodies.

There is no evidence that the E484K mutation produces increased infectivity.

Since week 44, 89 cases of the E484K mutation have been detected in Denmark. Among them, 69% are the new B.1.525 variant.

One of the Danish B.1.525 cases was admitted to hospital, but not to intensive care. There are so far no deaths among the 61 cases. Finally, none of the individuals were vaccinated before being infected with covid-19.
Also seen in other countries

The B.1.525 variant has also been seen in other countries. It has been seen in England, a few other countries in Europe, Nigeria as well as in the USA and Canada.

For a more complete discussion of the E484K mutation, you may wish to revisit last week's Denmark: SSI Risk Assessment On E484K SARS-CoV-2 Mutation.

As to whether B.1.525 will be able to successfully compete against other emerging variants - or will simply end up as an interesting footnote to the pandemic -  that is something only time will tell.