Friday, April 16, 2021

UK PHE COVID Variant Update - Adds 11th Variant (VUI-21APR-01) To Watchlist

Credit CDC

#15,913


While the first warnings over the B.1.1.7 (aka `UK') variant only sounded 4 months ago, it has already spread globally and has now been reported in 132 countries, making it the most successful COVID variant we've seen to date (see CDC map above)

More transmissible than earlier lineages of COVID, B.1.1.7 has quickly become the dominant COVID type in many parts of the world - although we've see pockets where other variants have taken hold - raising concerns that there are other variants with the potential to dethrone the juggernaut that is B.1.1.7 in the months ahead. 

In head-to-head matchups the P.1 variant has easily overpowered B.1.1.7 in Brazil, and two days ago - in CDC U.S. Variant Update: B.1.1.7 Dominates while P.1 Climbs Past B.1.351 - we saw that while B.1.1.7 was the dominant variant across the United States, in California and Arizona the B.1427/B.1429 (aka `California') variants reign supreme.

As community immunity against B.1.1.7 builds (either due to previous COVID infection or vaccination), we may begin to seen the rise of other variants more resistant to existing immunity. 

In the United States the CDC currently tracks hundreds of variants, but has designated 8 variants as either VOCs (Variants of Concern) or VUIs (Variants of Interest).  A third category - VHC (Variant of High Consequence) - remains empty for now. 

  • The B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, and B.1.429 variants circulating in the United States are classified as VOCs.
  • The B.1.526, B.1.527, and P.2 variants circulating in the United States are classified as VUIs.
In the UK, which still leads the world in genomic testing and surveillance, their PHE has just added their 11th Variant - the B.1.617 (commonly called the `Indian double mutant' variant in the media) - to their watchlist, after 77 cases were detected in the UK. 

In India - which is currently seeing a massive surge of COVID cases - genomic surveillance is limited, but a recent report in the Indian Express (see Maharashtra: double mutant found in 61% samples tested) found (among a very small sample collected in only one state) that this new variant was dominant. 
 
Without better data it is impossible to say whether this B.1.617 variant is the primary cause of India's recent surge in cases. But it is certainly plausible that it has been a significant factor.

The UK uses their own, proprietary  nomenclature for identifying these variants, and has dubbed this latest one VUI-21APR-01.  The announcement came yesterday:

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 variants identified in UK

Latest updates on SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in UK.

From:Public Health England
Last updated:15 April 2021, see all updates

New Variant Under Investigation (VUI) designated

A new variant has been designated a Variant Under Investigation (VUI) by PHE.

The variant, first detected in India, includes a number of mutations including E484Q, L452R, and P681R.

PHE has identified 77 cases of this variant in the UK and all appropriate public health interventions will be undertaken, including enhanced contact tracing.

This variant has been designated VUI-21APR-01. PHE and international partners continue to monitor the situation closely.

          (Continue . . . )

For now, however,  B.1.1.7 continues to dominate in the UK (16,177 new cases in the last week), with the other 10 variants combined making up less than 1% of the total.  


In the UK, as in the rest of the world, we'll be watching to see if there are any important shifts in the balance of power among COVID variants in the months ahead.